As the NFL season heads into Week 12, the playoff race is heating up. With the landscape shifting rapidly, it’s crucial for fans to keep an eye on the teams that are poised to make a deep postseason run. This year, the playoff format allows for 14 teams, and a surprising number of squads with losing records have made the playoffs in past seasons. Here’s a breakdown of the projected playoff teams and their chances of making the postseason.
Historical Context
Since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020, several teams with .500 or worse records have defied the odds. Notably:
- 2020: 1 team (Washington Commanders)
- 2021: 3 teams (Raiders, Seahawks, 49ers)
- 2022: 3 teams (Panthers, Chargers, Buccaneers)
- 2023: 3 teams (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers)
This trend offers hope to teams currently below .500 as they still have a chance to sneak into the postseason.
AFC Playoff Projections
1. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West Champion)
- Record: 9-1
- Playoff Chances: High
- Notes: Despite a tough loss to the Bills, the Chiefs remain the favorites for the top seed in the AFC, benefiting from strong home-field advantage.
2. Buffalo Bills (AFC East Champion)
- Record: 9-2
- Playoff Chances: 18.6% chance to win the Super Bowl
- Notes: The Bills’ victory over the Chiefs solidified their status as serious contenders in the AFC.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North Champion)
- Record: 8-2
- Playoff Chances: 69.7% to win the division
- Notes: After a thrilling win over the Ravens, the Steelers are firmly in control of the AFC North.
4. Houston Texans (AFC South Champion)
- Record: 7-4
- Playoff Chances: 96.1% chance to win the division
- Notes: The Texans have a comfortable lead over the Colts and are on track for a playoff berth.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (Wild Card 1)
- Record: 7-3
- Playoff Chances: High
- Notes: The Chargers have a crucial matchup against the Ravens that could impact their playoff positioning.
6. Baltimore Ravens (Wild Card 2)
- Record: 7-4
- Playoff Chances: Moderate
- Notes: The Ravens’ recent loss to the Steelers complicates their path to the division title.
7. Denver Broncos (Wild Card 3)
- Record: 6-5
- Playoff Chances: 53.5%
- Notes: The Broncos are making strides towards securing a wild card spot.
Other AFC Teams
- Colts: 21.5%
- Bengals: 14.5%
- Dolphins: 13.4%
- Titans: 0.3%
NFC Playoff Projections
1. Detroit Lions (NFC North Champion)
- Record: 9-1
- Playoff Chances: 21.2% chance to win the Super Bowl
- Notes: The Lions are not only leading their division but are also serious contenders for the Lombardi Trophy.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East Champion)
- Record: 8-2
- Playoff Chances: 72.5% to win the division
- Notes: The Eagles are in a strong position after their recent victory over the Commanders.
3. Arizona Cardinals (NFC West Champion)
- Record: 6-4
- Playoff Chances: 48.5%
- Notes: The Cardinals hold a narrow lead in the competitive NFC West.
4. Atlanta Falcons (NFC South Champion)
- Record: 6-5
- Playoff Chances: 72.2%
- Notes: Despite recent struggles, the Falcons remain favorites in their division.
5. Minnesota Vikings (Wild Card 1)
- Record: 8-2
- Playoff Chances: High
- Notes: The Vikings are expected to finish with at least 12 wins but will have to settle for a wild card due to the Lions’ dominance.
6. Washington Commanders (Wild Card 2)
- Record: 7-4
- Playoff Chances: 93.1%
- Notes: Despite some recent struggles, the Commanders have a good chance of making the playoffs.
7. Green Bay Packers (Wild Card 3)
- Record: 7-4
- Playoff Chances: 81.7%
- Notes: The Packers are in a strong position, but their standing could change depending on their matchup with the 49ers.
Other NFC Teams
- 49ers: 32.1%
- Buccaneers: 28.2%
- Seahawks: 26.8%
- Rams: 10.2%
Wild Card Round Projections
AFC
- (7) Broncos at (2) Bills
- (6) Ravens at (3) Steelers
- (5) Chargers at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
- (7) Packers at (2) Eagles
- (6) Commanders at (3) Cardinals
- (5) Vikings at (4) Falcons
Bye: Lions
Conclusion
As the NFL season progresses, the playoff picture continues to evolve. While many teams are solidifying their positions, others are still in contention, regardless of their current records. With the potential for surprises and upsets as the season unfolds, every fan should stay engaged—there’s still plenty of football left to play!