Matrix Reloaded: December 6, 2024

For the past six offseasons, I’ve spent (too) much of my time compiling my Offseason Matrices Google Doc, a project that Davy Andrews so kindly described as “a job of absolute madness.”

The document has evolved tremendously since its first iteration in the 2018-19 offseason, with more tabs, better formatting and color coding, linking to sources, and many other improvements to make it more user-friendly and comprehensive. Now, in this weekly column, I’ll break down the latest updates, talking about how the latest signings and trades have had downstream effects on the team that actually acquired the player, as well as others that didn’t. The goal here is not to repeat every move that happens; that’s what FanGraphs’ initial coverage was for! Rather, my goal is to add additional context and commentary and summarize how the offseason landscape has changed with the changes. After all, that’s what all the color coding on the Matrix is ​​for.

The most important rumors of the week

• Juan Soto appears to be getting closer to a decision, with at least five teams still in the running: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Mystery teams are always possible, I suppose, but now that bidding has reached $600 million, I highly doubt it. Soto has started eliminating teams, although we’re not sure which teams have been eliminated and how many remain. According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, we should know Soto’s destination by the start of the winter meetings on Monday at the latest.

• The Yankees appear to be preparing for life after Soto, although they hope it doesn’t come to that. They have reportedly met with free agent starting pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, and could push hard to sign infielder Willy Adames if Soto leaves. From a trade perspective, they have shown interest in Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger to replace Soto as the left-handed bat in the middle of the lineup. Bellinger could also fill their void at first base and could be an option even if Soto returns. Speaking of first base options, earlier in the offseason, the Yankees checked out Pete Alonso and were one of the teams to express interest in Christian Walker.

• Trader Jerry is at it again, starring Adam Jude from Seattle Times reporting that the Mariners have had preliminary discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and the Cubs about Nico Hoerner. Teams will be in conversations with dozens of free agents and dozens of trade targets, so don’t draw any conclusions about that specific players for now. However, these two nuggets signal that Jerry Dipoto is looking to improve at third and second base, perhaps aggressively. Also, kudos to Dave Dombrowski for reportedly asking for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in exchange for Bohm.

• Korean second baseman Hye-seong Kim has officially been assigned to MLB clubs and now has until 5pm EST on January 3 to reach a deal. It was already linked to the Mariners pre-posting and other teams should definitely follow up now that it’s officially available. Eric Longenhagen has him pegged as a 40FV player who may not have much upside but should be a relatively low-cost option. Ha-Seong Kim (no relation, though they played together in Korea) signed for four years and $28 million when he arrived in the United States before the 2021 season, and Hye-seong is expected to end up there.

Luis Severino signed for three years, 67 million dollars

Effect on A

Well folks, we have our first real “he signed WHERE???” of the low season. The A’s are showing that they are at least somewhat committed to fielding a more competitive team in 2025. Furthermore, $67 million for Severino is also a strong indication that a premium may be needed to lure players to a minor league stadium for any period, especially a player like Severino. This will almost certainly be the biggest deal the A’s sign this offseason, but for the first time in a few years, you don’t have to squint too hard to see the makings of a decent team.

Effect on other teams

I’m not sure how many other suitors Severino had, nor do I know how many of them had the A on their radar as potentially vying for him along with them. Whatever the case, such teams will turn their attention to similar pitchers, perhaps others with qualifying offers attached, like Nick Pivetta and Sean Manaea, or a free throw pitcher like Nathan Eovaldi.

Effect on similar players

Those similar guys I just mentioned are probably doing somersaults after learning that Severino signed for $23 million per year. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel had the highest contract projection (under the Total Spending Projection tab) for Severino among those I was able to aggregate, and it was a low $8.5 million. That doesn’t necessarily mean Pivetta, Manaea and Eovaldi will sign for many millions more than expected, but one fewer pitcher on the board – signed by an unexpected team, no less – should increase demand for those three.

The Mets sign Frankie Montas for two years, $34 million

Effect on the Mets

That doesn’t stop the Mets from adding to their rotation; they still have at least two rotation spots to fill, with Kodai Senga joining Montas and likely David Peterson as locks for the starting five. This move should also solidify José Buttó as a backup, even though he was tested hard in spring training.

Effect on other teams

Could this prompt rivals to call for Paul Blackburn? We know the Mets need as many starters as possible, but Blackburn fell further down the depth chart with the addition of Montas, and his move to the IL with spinal fluid leaks meant the Mets couldn’t rate him highly after acquiring him from the A’s at the trade deadline.

Effect on similar players

The $34 million Montas earned over two years (with one opt-out!) seemed to help Matthew Boyd (more on him later), and that $17 million average annual value should be good news for similarly-ranked players like Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander and Michael Lorenzen. I think Montas will outperform all those guys in AAV, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see most of them beat the median contract projection, which you can find in the Total Spending Projection tab.

Cubs sign Matthew Boyd for two years, $14.5 million

Effect on Puppies

More than likely, the addition of Boyd will end the Cubs’ quest for starting pitching, at least when it comes to adding more middle-of-the-order weapons. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Boyd should be guaranteed starting jobs, and I think the Cubs would only bump Javier Assad if they were able to get a true impact starter like Garrett Crochet, Max Fried or Jack Flaherty.

Effect on other teams

Like Blackburn with the Mets, Assad could become a trade target for teams needing to start with pitching depth, though I’m not sure how willing the Cubs would be to part with him. As I said, I think Assad has an advantage in the competition for the fifth starting spot. However, perhaps the Cubs would be more inclined to trade him if he was part of a deal to get a better starter, like the aforementioned Crochet. Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski are now on the outside looking for rotation spots. Despite Chicago’s strong depth, as a rule, I generally do not mark the team columns on the FA matrix with brown cells (indicating occupied positions) for pitchers, since there are never too many of them.

Effect on similar players

Medium rotation arms will be paid for this winter!

Red Sox sign Aroldis Chapman to one year, $10.75 million

Effect on the Red Sox

The Red Sox entered the offseason with a lot of work to do in their bullpen. That said, Boston has to feel pretty comfortable with its lefties now that Chapman and Justin Wilson are in the fold. Brennan Bernardino and Cam Booser are also among the 40 men.

Effect on other teams

We don’t know of any other teams interested in Chapman, but with clearly the second-best left-handed reliever off the board, there’s now a big chasm between big man Tanner Scott and the rest of the lefties for teams looking to add a lefty. In addition to Scott, there is also Scott Alexander, Ryan Yarbrough, Danny Coulombe, Drew Smyly, Andrew Chafin, Jalen Beeks and Hoby Milner, among others. There are a lot of interesting names there, but only Chapman has the high-octane gas that Scott also has.

Effect on similar players

That $10.75 million is a healthy contract for Chapman and should make for a good target for highly leveraged veteran arms outside of the big four of Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Clay Holmes and Carlos Estévez. Blake Treinen, Kenley Jansen, Kirby Yates and David Robertson should all be targeting at least $10 million.

Rangers sign Kyle Higashioka for two years, $12.5 million

Effect on Rangers

The Heim-Higashioka timeshare takes the Rangers out of the catcher market for the remainder of the offseason. (Their column now has brown cells for all catchers expected to get MLB deals.) It also gives them an obvious trade chip in Sam Huff, who has performed well in limited opportunities in MLB over the past four years, but not has never been much appreciated behind the plate.

Effect on other teams

Huff’s entry onto the trading block somewhat makes up for the inability of other teams to sign Higashioka, although, again, Huff is probably not a catcher and certainly doesn’t have the reputation that Higgy has back there. The catcher market is the only group of position players that moved quickly in free agency; Higashioka, Jacob Stallings, Austin Hedges, Danny Jansen and Travis d’Arnaud are now all off the board. Carson Kelly, Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sánchez, Elias Díaz and James McCann are the best remaining options.

Effect on similar players

Of those top options I just mentioned, Kelly is the only option left who seems likely to sign a multi-year contract to me. Higashioka essentially matched his average contract projection of two years and $14 million, signing for just $500,000 less. That’s helpful data for Kelly, whose average forecast is two years to $14 million.

Rays sign Danny Jansen to one year, $8.5 million

Effect on rays

Along with the Rangers, the Rays now have their catcher timeshare set for 2025, with lefty Ben Rortvedt and lefty Jansen forming a natural platoon. For $8.5 million, Jansen could be very successful against righties as well, but Rortvedt should play more than a typical backup even if he is relegated to that role. The Rays already lost René Pinto to waivers against the Orioles, so Logan Driscoll will be in Triple-A as a top depth option.

Effect on other teams

If you want a receiver, the options dwindle quickly. If none of the backstops I mentioned in the Higashioka section sound particularly appealing, maybe call the Pirates and ask about Jason Delay or Henry Davis, or tell the Phillies about Rafael Marchán or Garrett Stubbs.

Effect on similar players

Jansen’s contract turned out to be worse than expected; its median contract forecast was two years and $18 million, so it didn’t even match the AAV. This might be bad news for Kelly, but I think Kelly is closer to Higashioka than Jansen. Kelly has a solid defensive reputation and is also coming off a better season, while Jansen has a concerning injury history and had a difficult season in 2023.