The Soto offer could approach $700 million

Like the Juan Soto the decision is approaching, the expected contract seems to continue to rise. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the price could go up to $700 million. Heyman suggests the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays could all be close to that milestone. The Dodgers are also finalists, but various reports consider them the least likely of the quintet to clinch it.

On Tuesday, The Athletic reported that multiple teams had made offers of $600 million or more. Agent Scott Boras said at the time that Soto had begun narrowing down the field, though he did not specify a timeline for his decision. Most reports indicate he will likely sign by the end of the winter meetings next week, perhaps as early as this weekend.

According to Heyman, teams have continued to adjust their offers in recent days. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported last night that the Red Sox were hoping for a final meeting with Soto’s camp to get the outfielder to name the specific price at which he would put pen to paper. It’s unclear whether Soto would allow any team to sit.

Shohei Ohtani the deal was initially reported as a 10-year, $700 million contract. The extreme nature of the deferrals in Ohtani’s deal, reported just days after he announced his signing with the Dodgers, has dramatically reduced the net present value. MLB valued the contract at around $461 million for luxury tax purposes. It’s still an all-time record. Soto would undoubtedly break $461 million and was expected to go well over $500 million. (MLBTR had a 13-year, $600 million contract at the start of the offseason.) Getting to $700 million without deferrals would have shattered contract precedents.

Ohtani’s annual salary of $46.06 million – always adjusted for deferrals – is the record for average annual value. Bryce Harper’s The 13-year contract is the longest free agent contract in history. Soto would likely need to break both records to get to $700 million, potentially on a 14-year contract at $50 million per year. It shouldn’t be long before we find out whether the market will reach these levels.