Willy Adames signs giant contract

Through the first week of December, the steady stream of free agency had almost exclusively included pitchers and catchers. Other position players, understandably, seemed to be waiting out the Juan Soto trade, as Zoomer Ted Williams’ price reportedly continues to rise. But as baseball’s elite descend on Dallas for the Winter Meetings, at least one top player will already have a new home.

Shortstop Willy Adames is now a San Francisco Giant. Adames was the no. 2 overall Top 50 free agent in Ben Clemens and the first major acquisition for new Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey. It’s a pretty flashy move; Adames’ seven-year, $182 million contract is the largest, in terms of total value, the Giants have ever made, beating the eight-year, $167 million extension Posey himself signed in 2013.

Records are made to be broken.

Over the past two offseasons, the Giants’ previous leadership, under Farhan Zaidi, navigated free agency commensurate with the club’s semi-competitor status. Zaidi failed to bring back Aaron Judge and the club walked away from a $300 million-plus contract deal with Carlos Correa. But the Giants waited until the trade deadline last winter to sign Blake Snell and Matt Chapman, in both cases making a big splash in 2024.

Posey, then only a minority owner, was involved in signing Chapman to a six-year, $151 million extension this September, just weeks before the 2012 MVP executed his palace coup and pushed Zaidi down from the castle parapet. Now, he’s thrown an even bigger contract, including a $22 million signing bonus, at the best free agent infielder on the market. Whatever Posey’s other concerns are for the rest of the 2020s, the left side of the infield won’t be one of them.

The dollar figure is intriguing; As much as we at FanGraphs love Adames, Ben has projected a $145 million payout over five years for the former Brewer. Our median crowdsource estimate was six years and $150 million – a higher overall dollar figure but a lower AAV. Seven years and $182 million equals $26 million a year, or Ben’s number plus two years at $13.5 million each, if you want to look at it that way.

You could look at it another way: That’s a lot of money for a player who never made an All-Star team, never posted a 5.0 WAR season or better, never won a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger and never finished higher than 10th in MVP voting.

Who could have predicted this?

Well, if you’ll allow me a quick digression for a victory lap, I did it! One of the very first articles I wrote for FanGraphs, in September 2022, talked about how Adames had quietly slotted into the upper echelon of shortstops and was in line to make $150 million or more when he hit free agency.

I bring this up not just because I love being right, but because the logic I followed then (and in my follow-up article last March) still holds true. And for Giants fans who are understandably not very familiar with Adames’ portfolio, this logic answers the burning questions of “Who is this guy?” and “Why the hell is he making almost $200 million?”

Adames is a career .248/.322/.444 hitter. He’s a good defensive shortstop, but not a great one. His 21 stolen bases last season more than doubled his previous career high. If you’re looking for something Adames does at an elite level, you’re in for a long and frustrating time. But if you want to know what Adames does well, the answer is: “Pretty much everything.”

Beyond that, it’s incredibly consistent. Every hitter has ups and downs during the season and Adames is no exception. But on a year-to-year level, it’s metronomic. Every year since 2021, he has recorded at least 550 plate appearances, 20 home runs and 3.0 or more WAR. If you prorate the pandemic-shortened 2020 season to 162 games, that streak goes back six seasons, to Adames’ first full year in the majors.

I also wouldn’t say Adames is among the top-ranked shortstops ever in the game, but you don’t have to be that way to get paid $26 million a year. Here’s what you might consider Adames’ peer group to be: shortstops on big contracts, with their WAR in the three seasons prior to signing their current deals.

Adames loses to the other players on this table (except Crawford) in peak one-year WAR, but everyone except Lindor has a problem. Seager, Correa and Story continue to get hurt. Báez left his bat in Chicago. Swanson is still an exceptional defender, but his offense has regressed since he arrived at the Cubs, perhaps because he picked up the cursed bat that Báez left behind. Turner is so violent that he makes Phillies fans feel sorry for him. Bogaerts has a much longer contract. Witt is a $26.3 million-per-year bargain, but the Giants won’t be able to sign a player like him in free agency. (Even if the Orioles continue to screw up and let Gunnar Henderson go, San Francisco might have a chance to get closer in a few years.)

Posey comes into his job with almost no experience in baseball operations, and is so new that he hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt. And make no mistake: it will have to. Posey is one of the best all-around ballplayers I’ve ever seen and will be able to draw on everything he’s learned in more than a decade in the majors, as well as two years on the Giants’ board of directors. . But playing baseball requires different skills than managing a team; when Posey took over the Giants, he had as much formal experience in baseball operations as the guy behind you in line at 7-Eleven.

We’ve come so far that having a former player lead a team is a rarity, especially one who didn’t make a career as a scout, coach or other type of analyst. Furthermore – and I say this with no undue disrespect – retired superstars like Posey, forced into analytical or consulting roles, can be impulsive and lacking in curiosity. It’s up to Posey to confound the stereotype.

Given Posey’s lack of experience and Adames’ lack of star power for a player so high on the free agent rankings, it’s easy to see this signing as an overpayment by a president of baseball operations who is already out of his reach and does not realize It. I don’t think it’s an indefensible position and, over time, it may prove to be the right reading of the situation.

But I think this view underestimates two things: First, that $26 million a year isn’t what it used to be. Luis Severino just received $22.3 million a year from a Serie A team too poor to afford a name. Second, consistent, above-average play may not be attractive, but it is valuable. Especially at shortstop. There’s a reason Adames has been a forced starter for a playoff team in five of his six full seasons in the majors. And those Rays and Brewers clubs had far fewer resources than these Giants.

Speaking of those giants: they could still use a little more star power. Between Chapman, Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, Patrick Bailey and LaMonte Wade Jr., they have good players, even great players, all over the field. But Logan Webb is the only player on the projected roster who poses a threat to win an MVP or Cy Young. Presumably, Posey and his crew are aiming to sign a high-end free agent pitcher as well. (Hey, isn’t Corbin Burnes from California?)

If so, well, they could use another great name.

Which is a pretty uncharitable thing to say about a team that just gave the largest contract in franchise history to No. 2 free agents on the market, I realize. But the NL West is a tough place to win right now. The Dodgers just won the championship and are only getting better. The Diamondbacks won the pennant in 2023, suffered a terrible glut of collapses and injuries, and still improved their regular season record by five games. The Padres are, as always, unpredictable, but they are one of the most talented teams in any division.

The Giants could be legitimately good in 2025 and still finish fourth in the division. Writing Adames’ name into the lineup 150 games a year will go a long way toward overcoming that formidable opposition.