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While the New York Mets were busy spending three-quarters of a billion dollars, the defending champion Dodgers were making a couple of low-key moves, re-signing reliever Blake Treinen and signing outfielder Michael Conforto. Treinen, a Dodger since 2019, will earn $22 million over the next two seasons. Conforto arrives in Los Angeles on a one-year, $17 million contract after two seasons with the organization’s biggest rival, the San Francisco Giants.
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Treinen is a known asset for the Dodgers, so this is basically a status quo signing. He had a solid first season with the organization in 2020 — 3.86 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 25 2/3 innings — and won a World Series, and then was even better in 2021, posting a 1.99 ERA and 2.88 FIP over 72 1/3 innings. However, in 2022, Treinen’s shoulder started to become an issue. After the season, he underwent surgery to repair his labrum and rotator cuff, forcing him to miss all of 2023. This March, his spring training was cut short when he was hit by a line drive that injured his lung , but that didn’t stop him from having a successful campaign. His velocity had dropped slightly, though the drop had little effect on his results: 1.93 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 46 2/3 innings. And even though his sinker wasn’t the weapon it was before his shoulder surgery, his sweeper was as scary as ever.
ZiPS Screening – Blake Treinen
Year | W | the | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | human resources | BB | AS | WAS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 6 | 3 | 3.13 | 49 | 1 | 46.0 | 37 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 49 | 131 | 0.8 |
2026 | 6 | 3 | 3.61 | 52 | 1 | 47.3 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 16 | 47 | 113 | 0.6 |
ZiPS Percentiles – Blake Treinen
percentile | WAS+ | ERA | WAR |
---|---|---|---|
95% | 318 | 1.28 | 2.0 |
90% | 242 | 1.69 | 1.7 |
80% | 188 | 2.17 | 1.4 |
70% | 165 | 2.48 | 1.2 |
60% | 144 | 2.84 | 1.0 |
50% | 131 | 3.13 | 0.8 |
40% | 120 | 3.41 | 0.7 |
30% | 107 | 3.82 | 0.4 |
20% | 93 | 4.38 | 0.2 |
10% | 78 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
5% | 68 | 6.04 | -0.4 |
Bringing back Treinen doesn’t really change the outlook of the Dodgers’ bullpen, simply because it already looked pretty bad, especially if you agree with ZiPS. (Steamer isn’t as optimistic about their relief corps.) Treinen has some associated downside risks to keep in mind beyond the normal pitcher injury stuff. He didn’t reach his final form until he was 30, so he’s probably a little older than most people think; he will turn 37 at the end of June. While I always tell people that “hitters get older, pitchers get broken,” Treinen is approaching eras where actual decline beyond normal injury/attrition is a thing that happens. The Dodgers have more than enough depth to deal with this, should it happen.
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Adding Conforto isn’t as sexy a move as it would have been four years ago. With the Mets, Conforto established himself as an All-Star talent, with a 133 WRC+ and 13.5 WAR in just under 2,000 plate appearances from 2017 to 2020. But a hamstring injury and a case of COVID ruined his 2021 season, and a shoulder problem. an injury from training during the offseason lockout resulted in surgery that cost him the entire 2022 season. Signed with the Giants to a buyout contract before 2023, Conforto’s first season back from injury is was somewhat disappointing, with a bland .232/.344/.384 triple-slash line, a 99 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR, but he rebounded in 2024, even if not at the previous levels. In 488 plate appearances, he hit .237/.309/.450 with 20 home runs, a 112 wRC+ and 1.3 WAR.
Of course, the Dodgers won’t count on Conforto as one of the big movers in the offense. At this stage of his career, he is basically taking on the role of late-period Jason Heyward, as he is a left-handed corner outfielder who will complement the team’s right-handed role players, such as Andy Pages and Chris Taylor. ZiPS projects Conforto’s .766 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 2025 for the Dodgers.
ZiPS projection – Michael Conforto
Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | human resources | RBI | BB | AS | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | .232 | .317 | .422 | 388 | 52 | 90 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 66 | 43 | 108 | 1 | 104 | 1.0 |
ZiPS Percentiles – Michael Conforto
percentile | 2B | human resources | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | WAR |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
95% | 26 | 28 | .279 | .366 | .535 | 144 | 3.1 |
90% | 24 | 25 | .266 | .354 | .503 | 133 | 2.5 |
80% | 22 | 22 | .254 | .340 | .471 | 122 | 1.9 |
70% | 20 | 21 | .246 | .331 | .453 | 117 | 1.7 |
60% | 19 | 19 | .237 | .324 | .439 | 110 | 1.3 |
50% | 18 | 18 | .232 | .317 | .422 | 104 | 1.0 |
40% | 17 | 17 | .224 | .310 | .402 | 99 | 0.7 |
30% | 16 | 15 | .215 | .303 | .387 | 93 | 0.4 |
20% | 14 | 13 | .205 | .291 | .365 | 83 | -0.1 |
10% | 12 | 11 | .191 | .274 | .334 | 71 | -0.8 |
5% | 10 | 9 | .179 | .259 | .308 | 60 | -1.3 |
Having Conforto on the roster clears up a couple of other unanswered questions when looking at the Dodgers. Dalton Rushing saw quite a bit of time in the outfield for Triple-A Oklahoma City last year, but I suspect that until the Dodgers are ready to use him in a full-time role, they’d rather see him batting in the minors than struggling for the discards in the majors. It also likely guarantees that Mookie Betts will be primarily an infielder in 2025, barring injuries. Conforto’s signing likely doesn’t have much effect on free agent Teoscar Hernández’s return to Los Angeles, though Pages could end up without a roster spot if Hernández were to return.
Do Treinen and Conforto make the Dodgers a significantly better team? Obviously not. But they’re a deeper, more resilient bunch with the two of them around.
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