Bieber decides to stay | Baseball by FanGraphs

According to the Billboard Hot 100 charts, the biggest hit of Justin Bieber’s career is “Stay,” a song you can’t get out of your head, or admit you can’t get out of your head, or just can’t get out of your head. head. You don’t realize that you can’t get out of your head because you hear it playing everywhere – all the time – but you don’t know the title or the artist. Either way, it seems one Bieber’s not-so-subliminal messages have influenced the other. Shane Bieber has decided to stay (oh, ooh-woah) with the Guardians, and he’s hoping the decision turns out to be just as profitable as Justin’s song.

Bieber’s contract is essentially a one-year prove-it deal with the added security of a second-year option. The Steeder will earn $10 million for his age-30 season in 2025. After that, he can exercise a $16 million option for 2026 or take a $4 million buyout and return to free agency. In other words, the player option is only worth $12 million to Bieber, which means he definitely doesn’t intend to exercise it unless things get particularly bad. After all, he managed to get this contract halfway through his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery. The Guardians are ready to pay him $14 million for half a season of work, and it reportedly wasn’t even his highest offer. It’s safe to say he won’t choose this option unless he suffers another injury.

So if Bieber’s plan is to continue his rehab, rebuild his value and cash in next offseason, it’s easy to see why he could have taken less money to stay in Cleveland. Not only does it already have a relationship and rehabilitation plan with the Guardians, but this is an organization with a strong track record of helping pitchers thrive. Just look at Matthew Boyd, who returned from Tommy John this summer and parlayed a handful of starts with the Guardians into a two-year, $29 million contract with the Cubs. Alternatively, look at Bieber himself. The organization took a fourth-round draft pick (122nd overall) and a 45 FV prospect and turned him into a Cy Young winner. It’s no surprise that he wants to stay with the same organization as he returns from a career-altering injury. The chances of him eventually receiving a big, long-term deal from the Guardians are slim to none, but he’s counting on them to help him get that offer from someone else.

Does this make Bieber sound like a character from a teen movie who hangs out with the Guardians only to get noticed by the head cheerleader? Maybe, but the Guardians aren’t idiots in this scenario. In fact, their end of the deal might be even sweeter. The average prediction for Bieber from our contract crowdsourcing exercise was a two-year, $40 million pact. Of the 11 pitchers on our list of the top 50 free agents who have signed so far, only two signed for less than the crowdsourced contract estimated: Nick Martinez, who accepted the qualifying offer, and Bieber. (Financial details of Alex Cobb’s contract with the Tigers have yet to be revealed.) If Bieber is anything like his old self when he returns to the mound, $14 million will be a steal for the Guardians, even if he pitches only half of that a season.

At his best, Bieber is nearly untouchable. It certainly looked that way early in the 2024 season. On his Opening Day, he gave the Guardians six scoreless innings, striking out 11 and walking no walks. He followed that up with six more scoreless frames in his second outing. He eliminated only nine that time, but again did not issue any free passes. That’s ridiculously good for two consecutive performances, let alone his first two starts of the year. Going back to 1901, only one other pitcher has done so never pitched at least 12 scoreless innings with at least 20 strikeouts and no more than one walk in his first two starts of the season: Shane Bieber in 2020. How about a fun fact?

Underpinning those dominant performances was an increase in fastball velocity. Bieber averaged 92.3 mph on his four-seamer in his first start of the season. That number dropped to 91.6 mph in his second start, at which point he was already throwing in the pain of a damaged UCL. However, even that diminished number was one mile per hour faster than his four-seam average through his first two starts in 2023 (90.6 mph). Maybe adding that extra grit caused his injury in the first place. Alternatively, perhaps nagging injury issues have been the root cause of his velocity fluctuations, and a surgically repaired elbow is exactly what he needs to get back on track. Right now, there’s little point in speculating when we simply don’t know what Bieber will be like when he returns.

What we know is that Bieber can still be a top-of-the-rotation arm even with a well-below-average fastball velocity. He was excellent in 2022, when his four-seamer averaged just 91.3 mph, pitching to a 2.88 ERA, 2.87 FIP and 4.8 WAR in 31 starts. He wasn’t as successful the following season, posting a 3.80 ERA and a 3.87 FIP over 21 games. However, he was walking 3.1 WAR that year before a shoulder injury and his first bout of elbow trouble kept him from pitching a full season. Also, and now I’m choosing, but if you remove his two poor starts right before landing on the IL, he would have been on pace for 3.4 WAR in 31 starts. Only 20 pitchers achieved 3.4 WAR in 2023.

When Bieber thrived without a fastball, it was thanks to precise command and a couple of vile breaking balls. From 2022-23, his 5.3% walk rate ranked seventh among qualified pitchers. Adding in pitches hit, only four qualified pitchers threw free passes at a lower rate. As for those breaking balls, a slider and a curveball, they were as dominant in 2022 as they were in his Cy Young season. However, his curve was noticeably less effective in 2023 (.280 wOBA, .299 xwOBA, -1 Run Value), which was a major reason why his overall numbers took a dip.

On the bright side, that was one of the pitches Bieber worked on at Driveline during the 2023-24 offseason. He adjusted his curveball grip to more closely resemble the version of the pitch he threw earlier in his career. The intention was to make it resemble his off-hand fastball as much as possible, thus inducing more chase. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen enough of Bieber in 2024 to say whether his curveball is back to the pitch it once was. We couldn’t even see much of the splinker he was working on. We also have no way of knowing what his pitches will look like when he finally returns to the mound. I know there’s a lot of uncertainty, but that’s the reality when it comes to Tommy John. All I can say is this If his secondary tones are high-pitched, Bieber has the skills to succeed without his top speed. He has always been a tinkerer and this will help him greatly if he needs to reinvent his arsenal.

The broad 12-18 month time frame for Tommy John’s return is especially unhelpful in Bieber’s case. His surgery took place at the beginning of April; a 12-month rehab would get him back on his feet not long after Opening Day, while 18 months would put him at risk of missing the entire 2025 season. Bieber himself is reportedly looking to split the difference with a return around June or July. Therefore, at best, the Guardians will likely get him 15 to 18 starts during the regular season. Best of all, they would have him for the playoffs. A one-two punch of Bieber and Tanner Bibee could give the Guardians a better postseason rotation than they did in 2024, regardless of who else makes up the starting staff.

Of course, we can’t ignore the rest of the rotation, especially when it comes to the first half of the season. As things stand, Cleveland will be challenged until Bieber returns, and even more so if he suffers a setback. After losing Boyd and Cobb in free agency, here’s what the team’s rotation depth chart currently looks like:

You’re looking at a group that will likely need to rely on another historically great performance from the bullpen to keep enough runs off the board. Suffice it to say, a couple more external additions would help enormously. However, when president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti discussed the rotation earlier this offseason, his comments were something of a sandwich of internal options: “I think first of all we’ve got to help the guys that are here continue to develop, improve and contribute… So we will always look for opportunities to complement them. Our success will depend on how well we can develop the kids who are here.” Antonetti alludes to the possibility of bringing in outside help, but surrounds that suggestion with language stronger on relying on pitchers who already owns.

When it comes to the Guardians, Bieber’s $26 million guarantee counts as a huge hit in terms of free agency. Furthermore, their estimated payroll for 2025 ($107 million) is already higher than their final payroll in 2024 ($104 million). So, it’s more than possible that the depth chart we’re looking at right now is exactly the same as what we’ll see on opening day. If so, this team should count its lucky stars that Bieber decided to stay.