Everything is burgers in Texas

Not content to watch their winter home games from the sidelines, the Texas Rangers dipped their toes in the water Tuesday night. (Language I chose with great care, considering previous events of historic significance at this year’s venue.) In addition to a three-year, $75 million deal to bring veteran Nathan Eovaldi back to Arlington, the Rangers acquired Jake Burger from the Marlins in exchange for minor league infielders Max Acosta and Echedry Vargas, as well as pitching prospect Brayan Mendoza.

Any description of a burger trade requires including the phrase “adds much-needed power.” I don’t know, the Rangers Need more power, but it’s certainly something you can never have too much of in your lineup. I will say this: Over the last two seasons, Burger has hit 63 home runs. The same goes for Corey Seager. Adolis García reached 64; Marcus Semien, 52 years old. No one else currently on the Rangers has clocked more than 33.

Burger isn’t the 30-homer type of guy who produces a lot of mortar hits and lucky skyscrapers. Instead, this guy hits nuclear weapons. Over the past two seasons, Burger has totaled 69 batted balls with an exit velocity of 110 miles per hour or more, eighth-most in the league. He is one of only nine hitters to have five or more batted balls with an EV of 115 or higher, and one of only eight to have broken the 118 mph barrier even once.

That kind of raw power is only available to a select few who have been deemed worthy by their creator, and even then you have to lift weights and eat your spinach. Given a full season’s playing time, I would expect Burger to surpass Bill Mueller and Luke Voit to move into second all-time in career home runs among former Missouri State Bears. (Burger is just 23 homers behind Voit for second place, but 310 behind current record holder Ryan Howard, so the leaderboard will only be mixed up that much. They make them big and strong in Starkvegas.)

Just in terms of raw power, Burger is really in a class with guys like Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Austin Riley.

We know Schwarber and Riley are $20 million a year guys, and Alonso will likely make even more when he signs. Burger will turn 29 next April, but because injuries and the pandemic have wiped out three seasons of his minor league career, he is still ineligible for arbitration.

The Rangers certainly gave up a lot of money to get him.

Ehhh, not really.

A nice bonus of this news during the Winter Meetings is having our supreme ruler of prospects, Eric Longenhagen, next to me in the media room as I write this. Here’s a recap of what Eric had to say about returning:

Acosta was promoted to Double-A in 2024 and has made it to this elimination level with great ease. He reduced his strikeout rate by more than a third from 2023, supported by a two-strike chase rate of 26%. This was just two points higher than his already impressive 24% overall chase rate. Eight home runs in 104 games may not be everyday starting strength, but thanks to a competitive high-average walk rate and 23 doubles, Acosta posted a 113 WRC+, which is downright impressive for a 21-year-old shortstop . He followed that up with an impressive performance in the Arizona Fall League.

Vargas posted good surface stats — .276/.321/.454 with 14 home runs in 97 games — in A-ball, but missed the Rangers’ prospect list in part because of his chase rates which gag-inducing: 44% overall, 59% with two strikes, 42% against fastballs. Eric’s direct quote was “one of the most impatient hitters in all of professional baseball.” When he makes contact, he hits the ball in the air from the strike side, which is good, but his lack of physical projection (and arm strength) will likely keep him from staying at shortstop and unless he catches the strike area, it won’t hit enough to attach elsewhere.

Mendoza, who will turn 21 in January, is a 5-foot-10 lefty who dominated Low-A in 22 appearances (17 starts) before finishing the season at High-A. His best shot is a missing changeup, which he turned into a weapon after a preseason grip change. He will also throw a fastball in the low 90s and a 10-4 breakball in the low 80s. Ironically, Mendoza’s short stature creates the appearance of a rising angle on his fastball that makes the pitch difficult to hit despite his pedestrian speed. If that holds, he could move quickly and hit the majors as a back-end starter pretty quickly. But Eric also warns: “If his fastball velocity decreases as his workload increases, then a more Tommy Milone-like outcome is likely.”

That’s more than the Marlins gave up to get Burger from the White Sox a year and a half ago, but the average outcome for these prospects leaves Miami with two complementary big leaguers and a shortstop who could be good if he learned to execute the fundamental act of hitting .

So why is Burger less valuable than the other plus-plus raw power guys? It’s a combination of small and medium-sized factors. (Ironic, I suppose.)

Burger isn’t as fly ball happy as Schwarber, Alonso or Riley, but in terms of hitting the ball in the air to the strike side – the shortcut to dinger-filled prosperity – he actually beats Riley pretty easily. But while he and Riley are both nominally third basemen, Burger gives up nearly a win of defensive value per year to his former division rival.

Then there’s the walking pace. Burger’s career strikeout rate is 27.5%, which is high, but we generally accept that strikeouts are the trade-off for being able to hit a ball 115 miles per hour. Unfortunately, Burger does not possess Schwarber’s preternatural gift for strike zone judgment, nor Alonso’s expertise in strike zone judgment.

Even with the strikeouts, Burger hit for a decent average: .250 from the button in each of his last three seasons. (The major league average in 2024 was .243.) But Alonso walks twice as much as Burger; Schwarber walks three times more. Even considering Burger’s propensity to get hit by pitches, that works out to discrepancies of about 20 and 50 points, respectively, in OBP.

That said, Burger is still a good player. He may be a poor man’s slacker, but he isn’t That poor. Over the last two seasons, Alonso has 4.9 wins, Schwarber 4.4 and Burger 3.6 in about 80% of playing time. RosterResource has Burger listed as the Rangers’ DH, which makes sense because Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Jung have the two inside corners locked down. But in case one of them gets hurt – which is a possibility based on the fact that it happened last season – Burger can step in. Defensively, he shouldn’t be Plan A, but he can stand at third base with one glove without being scared. small children.

But he’ll have to go to arbitration in a year, so the Marlins figured he’d get expensive, and they’re too poor even for the poor man’s slugger.

To the great advantage of the Rangers.