Soto-Free Yankees turn to Max Fried

Two days after failing to retain Juan Soto, the Yankees made their first major move of the offseason, landing left-hander Max Fried on an eight-year, $218 million contract. The deal is pending a physical issue, a nontrivial issue for a pitcher who has appeared in 30 games only once in the last four seasons and has landed on the injured list seven times, though only one of those absences lasted longer three weeks.

Although he was drafted by the Padres in the first round of the 2012 draft out of Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, Fried — who turns 31 on Jan. 18 — has spent his entire eight-year big league career with the Braves, helping them to reach seven playoff berths, including a win in the 2021 World Series; in fact, he helped seal the deal by pitching six shutout innings in the Game 6 clincher against the Astros. After making just 14 starts in 2023 due to a forearm strain that cost him three months and then a blister that limited him to 10 innings (four in the postseason) after September 12, he returned to catch the ball 29 times in ‘ 24, throwing 174.1 innings with a 3.25 ERA, a 3.33 FIP and a 3.64 xERA. While these were his highest marks in each category since 2019, his ERA still ranked fifth among National League qualifiers and his FIP seventh.

Those numbers were not only quite respectable at first glance, they were even more impressive when you take into account his early season struggles. In his first inning on March 30, Fried retired just two of the seven Phillies he faced while throwing 43 pitches, walking three and allowing three runs before being pulled. In his second start, against the Diamondbacks on April 6, he hit six runs in the first inning, including a leadoff homer by Ketel Marte (who added an RBI double in the same inning), but was left standing until the fifth, when he got into trouble. and was charged with two more races. But from that point until the end of the regular season, he posted a 2.82 ERA and a 3.26 FIP, and was downright unhittable at times.

Speaking of which: On April 23 against the Marlins in Atlanta, Fried allowed just one hit in his first six innings and not only finished with a three-hit shutout but also a Maddux, as he needed just 92 pitches to get the distance . In his next start, April 28 at Seattle, he pitched six hitless innings, walking two and striking out seven before being pulled after 100 pitches. On May 11 against the Mets at Citi Field, he pitched seven hitless innings, walking three and striking out five before taking the hook after 109 pitches. Two games later, on May 28 against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, he took a no-hitter in the sixth and finished with a complete game of three hits and two runs (one unearned) while striking out nine. After a 17-day stint on the IL in late July and early August due to a bout of ulnar neuritis, he continued his no-hit parade, getting a no-hitter in the fifth against the Dodgers on September 16 and a one- seventh-place hitter vs. Royals on Sept. 27; in the latter, he landed one shot and another Maddux.

Fried turned to the sinker more often in 2024 (15.8%) than in ’23 (11.7%) and hit fewer swinging shots than in the past (10.2%, up from 11.7%), but once again he did a great job of harshly suppressing contact. His average exit velocity of 86.3 mph ranks in the 95th percentile, his 5% barrel velocity in the 89th percentile and his hard hit rate of 34.6% in the 81st percentile. All of these numbers were more or less in line with his career marks and those since the start of 2020. According to Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com, Fried’s 4.7% barrel rate is the lowest among starters with at least 1,000 balls in play over the last five seasons, 0.1% below second-ranked Justin Steele, and 0.7% below third-ranked Corbin Burnes, the best front-line starter left in the free agent market. Meanwhile, Fried’s 86.1 mph average in the same range ranks second, and his 32.7% hard-hit rate ranks fourth.

My colleague Michael Rosen, who cited these numbers in a Nov. 25 article, also noted that Fried has done a great job of preventing doubles in that span, with only 16 allowed this year (tied lowest among qualifiers) and against 3.5% of all hitters faced since 2020, the sixth-lowest mark among 173 pitchers with at least 300 innings in that span. According to Rosen, Fried’s skill in that area manifests itself in a model called Mix+ that Driveline “uses to quantify the breadth of an arsenal. Mix+ calculates the pairwise distance between a pitcher’s bids in three-dimensional space when the fastest pitch reaches the plate and then adapts to the frequency of each pitch. Moreover:

“[Pi]teachers who rank higher in Mix+ should receive more takes due to the spread of potential pitch movement patterns. But the positive effects of a broad arsenal also extend to the quality of contact a pitcher allows… Because hitters must account for a variety of potential shapes at varying speeds, they are less likely to unleash an “A” swing.

Fried mixes his 94 mph fastball and 94 mph sinker with an exceptional double-plane curveball that has produced a 38.1% called strike and walk rate and held hitters to a .154 AVG and .285 SLG. According to Mix+, only Fried’s teammate, NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale, was better in 2024.

As for what this means for the Yankees, this is the largest contract ever for a left-handed pitcher, and the fourth largest in history, with new teammate Gerrit Cole still first at nine years and $324 million . Fried’s deal is $36 million more in sticker price than two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell’s deal with the Dodgers, but Snell’s only covers five years. Once Snell’s $66 million in deferred salary is taken into account, his AAV for competitive balance tax purposes is $31.36 million compared to Fried’s $27.25 million.

Go Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, general manager Brian Cashman pursued Snell, but the Yankees believed they couldn’t sign both him and Soto, and so declined to make an offer since the slugger situation hadn’t yet been resolved. They lost Soto to the Mets, who got him on Sunday with a huge 15-year, $765 million contract. During his Tuesday media session here at the Winter Meetings in Dallas, manager Aaron Boone said one path the team could take to improve after Soto’s departure is to improve its pitching:

“There is more than one way to build a team or skin a cat. Maybe it allows you to be more defensive. Maybe it allows you to play in the pitching market more often… Last year we had a great offense, obviously led by Juan and Aaron [Judge] hitting back to back. But that’s not the only way to be a great team, you know what I mean? We will see. We’re going to do our best and we’re confident that when we get to spring training, we’ll be in a position to be one of those teams that has a chance to compete for everything.”

With Cole remaining in the fold despite exercising his opt-out clause in November, the Yankees now have a rotation surplus, with Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt likely third and fourth starters, respectively, and AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman all options to complete the rotation. The 26-year-old Gil, who posted a 3.50 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 151.2 innings after missing most of the previous two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, has four years of control remaining clubs and therefore by far the highest commercial value of the trio. The 30-year-old Cortes, who posted a 3.77 ERA and 3.84 FIP in 174.1 innings, has one more year of control and will earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $7-8 million; has commercial value as a potential low-cost buffer solution. The 33-year-old Stroman posted a 4.31 ERA and 4.62 FIP in 154.2 innings in the first year of a two-year, $37 million contract for the Yankees, but by the postseason he had become a bystander. He’ll make $18.5 million in 2025, with an $18 million player option for ’26 if he reaches 140 innings.

Stroman’s salary could be used in a trade to compensate for the Yankees taking another contract, which could be a necessity as they may not be able to address all of their major needs via free agency. Gleyber Torres is a free agent, so they need a second or third baseman, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. fitting in at the other spot. Both first base (where Anthony Rizzo and Ben Rice struggled) and left field (where Alex Verdugo was one of the least productive players at that position) are ripe for significant improvement. The Yankees plan to move Judge back to right field with Soto’s departure, opening up the center field for prospect Jasson Domínguez, but will need outfield depth and insurance in case he struggles. In theory, Stroman’s money could help offset the remaining $59 million on Nolan Arenado’s deal; the Cardinals were linked to Stroman when he was a free agent last winter.

As for the contract, Dan Szymborski ran ZiPS projections in a previous Instagram post, but here it is again:

That’s just 13.0 WAR over eight years worth $120 million. ZiPS is obviously quite wary of Fried’s ability to stay healthy and less enamored of his 23.2% strikeout rate than, say, Snell’s 34.7%. But while Fried’s durability may be in question, some of his absences in recent years have been due to minor injuries (blisters in 2021 and 2023, hamstring strains in those same years) or fortuitous injuries (a concussion in 2022 ). The forearm strain cost him nearly three months, although his neuritis attack sidelined him for just 17 days.

Eight years for any pitcher is a risk, and with the dollars the Yankees are throwing at Fried, the deal is hardly without potential downsides if things go south. Plus, there’s always the possibility that Hal Steinbrenner will once again fall through the cracks when it comes to the Yankees’ other needs after making his big splash in the offseason. However, as Boone said, there’s more than one way the Yankees can improve, and here they’ve bolstered an already strong rotation while giving themselves some options to get additional help.