Guardians get Piñata throwing prospects for Andrés Giménez

DALLAS — In the middle of the Winter Meetings, the Cleveland Guardians traded Spencer Horwitz, the star of their return from the Toronto Blue Jays in the Andrés Giménez trade, to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for three pitchers: Luis L. Ortiz, Michael Kennedy and Josh Hartle . The deal expands the Guardians’ return for Giménez — whose projected impact on Toronto you can read about here — to a four-piece once including Nick Mitchell, a 2024 fourth-rounder from Indiana who was drafted by the Blue Jays and shipped to Cleveland in initial agreement.

The biggest fish of the quartet is Ortiz, a hard-throwing 25-year-old Dominican righty who has pitched at least part of each of the last three seasons in the majors in a few different roles. In 238 1/3 big league innings, Ortiz has a career 3.93 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 17.9% K% and 9.8% BB%, but these stats don’t sufficiently illuminate the talent and Ortiz’s potential, nor do they contextualize his deployment to Pittsburgh. A former top-100 prospect, Ortiz has been moved between the Pirates rotation and bullpen a few times over the past two seasons. He began 2024 as a long reliever and was moved back to the starting role midway through the season. After struggling with walks since reaching the upper levels of the minors, Ortiz had by far his most efficient big league season as a strike thrower, and he walked just 7.8% of batters after his return to rotation. He’s worked 135 combined innings between his two roles, which is right in line with his seasonal workload each of the last three seasons and enough to project him straight into Cleveland’s rotation in 2025.

Ortiz was a top-100 prospect because, despite his trouble throwing strikes in the minors, he has exceptional arm strength and a huge slider. I was of the opinion that even if Ortiz never developed into a quality starting pitcher, his qualities would be great enough to allow him to play a high-leverage bullpen role. But Ortiz didn’t miss big league bats at that level, even when he was able to air it out as a reliever and maximize his fastball in the 99-100 mph range. Cleveland has among the best pitcher development track records in the game and will now look to optimize Ortiz’s prodigious stuff. The curvaceous Ortiz (he’s 6-foot-2, 240 pounds or so) has a powerful lower body and is a remarkably loose and snappy athlete for a guy his size. His low three-quarters delivery produces shots with predominantly lateral action. It works with a four-staple machine, a platen, a cutter, a slider, and from time to time, it will show you a change. The Pirates tinkered with Ortiz’s platinum/four-seam usage rate in 2023, and the cutter was a new addition in 2024. That excess fastball should continue to help Ortiz work as efficiently as possible for some who sometimes struggles with mechanical consistency, particularly lead, which generated a 58% ground ball rate in 2024.

The meal ticket presentation here, though, is Ortiz’s slider. It features ridiculous horizontal motion for a pitch in the 83-87 mph range and was the only pitch in Ortiz’s repertoire to generate an above-average swing-strike rate (14%) in 2024. Despite the lack of vertical depth, Ortiz’s slider worked equally well against lefties and righties in 2024, at least when it came to chasing and missing. That slider and a raised four-seam fastball are the ways Ortiz most often attempts to finish hitters by counting two strikes. If Cleveland can add something (like a splitter?) or increase one aspect of Ortiz’s repertoire (perhaps through something as benign as his positioning on the rubber) to give him a dynamic, off-stick second shot, then he will profile more cleanly as appetizers. I’ve been betting on Ortiz’s unusual combination of size, athleticism and arm speed to land him in such a role for a while now, and I’m still inclined to do so now that he’s part of an organization that has demonstrated the ability to make better the pitchers. But Ortiz, thus far, has not performed at the level I hoped for when he was a candidate.

The other pitchers returning to Cleveland are both in the organization’s development wheelhouse. The Guardians love access to pitchers who do anything but throw hard, in hopes that their pitching development machine can help pitchers add velocity and facilitate a breakout. Tanner Bibee and Shane Bieber are great examples of this. They got two versions of that in the squat, 20-year-old lefty Michael Kennedy and newly drafted 21-year-old southpaw Josh Hartle.

Kennedy has an advanced command of two good off-speed pitches and a well-below-average fastball velocity, sitting at 88-91 mph. He was a 2022 fourth-over-slot player who signed for $1 million instead of going to LSU, and he made his way to High-A in 2024. A 6-foot-1 with short leverage, Kennedy’s physical traits combined with his low-to-the-ground delivery help his fastball hit above its weight. The line leading to the plate is flat and difficult for hitters to cross. Kennedy’s vertical snap and 11-to-5 motion of the 77-83 mph breaking ball play well with his fastball, and Kennedy commands both and likes to alter the leg kick to confuse hitters’ timing. Kennedy’s feel for locating his 82-84 mph changeup has improved in 2024, and that pace has generated above-average chases and misses. This is a tracking of top-tier back-end starting prospects to debut in 2027. Most 20-year-old pitchers are left with a decent physical projection, Kennedy less based on his size but probably more based on his athleticism. Cleveland was able to get more arm strength out of guys who weren’t obviously projectable, and if they can do the same with Kennedy (while maintaining his big lead), then he’ll break out and look more like a middle rotation. candidate.

Josh Hartle, on the other hand, has had an exciting physical projection his entire life as a prospect, but he hasn’t lived up to it yet. He’s a 6-foot-5 lefty who had a lot of profile in high school and looked like he could be the beneficiary of Wake Forest’s pitching development program and potentially go in the first round of the 2024 draft. It looked like Hartle was making the jump to sophomore year, even without increased speed, but his performance was confirmed during his senior year. Because of Wake’s reputation as a pitching factory, there is concern that if there were better things here, the program would have unlocked it. All the elements that made Hartle an exciting high school prospect are still here (6-foot-5 frame with broad shoulders, very repeatable delivery, depth of repertoire and quality starting command), but his fastball has averaged of 90 mph during the 2024 college season; he gave up a lot of shots and went to the third round. It features a five-pitch mix and lives primarily in the lower portion of the zone. His breaking ball and changeup (both low to mid-80s) generated a roughly average error in 2024, while his fastball and cutter were far, far below average in this sense. This is revolutionary fifth boot stuff (60% GB%).

While none of these players are likely to reach the peak Giménez reached, Cleveland has a good chance of getting at least two future integral members of its pitching staff out of this trade. If we’ve already seen Giménez peak and he hits more like he did in 2024 for the remainder of his contract, it’s possible that one or two of these pitchers will be as good or slightly better than Giménez or Horwitz. Ortiz will play a role right away and over the course of 2025 could become increasingly influential both as a starter and in the back of Cleveland’s bullpen. The Guardians have shown no qualms about accelerating the promotional pace of pitching prospects who have increased arm strength, and if either Hartle of Kennedy does so, they could put themselves on the doorstep of the big leagues by season’s end.

The Pirates operate from deep within their organization: their collection of young pitchers. In Horwitz, they get a desperately needed hitter who graduated as a 45 FV player last year when it became clear he could play a passable, situational second base. Due to the makeup of the Pirates roster, he is likely to spend the majority of his time at first base. He’s a clear improvement over Pittsburgh’s other options here right now, even if he lacks the typical power of an impact first baseman. The Pirates spent a lot in this trade more on Horwitz’s years of control (they have him until 2030) than on his cap hit. It’s a creative, long-term solution that has modest impact and immediately makes their big league team better.