Agent Joel Wolfe on Roki Sasaki’s free agency

Wasserman Agent Joel Wolfe held court with the media at this week’s winter meetings in Dallas to discuss a variety of topics, including an overview of the plan for newly detached right-handers Roki Sasaki. MLBTR was on hand as Wolfe discussed Sasaki, the 23-year-old ace of Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, who can now negotiate with every major league team.

Due to his age, Sasaki is subject to Major League Baseball’s international amateur guidelines; more specifically, this means he can only sign a minor league contract and receive a bonus that falls within the capped bonus pool assigned by his team’s league. If Sasaki had waited two years to get to the majors, he would have been 25 years old and therefore qualified as an amateur, perhaps setting him up for a contract that rivaled that of his compatriot and current Dodgers. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325 million).

When asked why Sasaki chose to seek assignment now rather than hit the majors as a true free agent in two years — potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table — Wolfe indicated he had been asked that question “by whoever you can imagine” and attempted to answer to the best of his ability.

“It’s a difficult question to answer. Part of it is Japanese culture. Part of it is just Roki Sasaki. There are no absolutes in baseball, and in Roki’s eyes, there are no absolutes in life. …He takes nothing for granted. It’s not an absolute certainty, as some in baseball have thought, that in two years he will get a contract with Yamamoto. Sometimes baseball just doesn’t work. You know, you look at the epidemic of injuries suffered by pitchers. You may have Tommy John surgery. He had two shoulder injuries. He had an oblique injury. Things may not go the way you want.

“The other thing is, it’s always been his dream to make it to the major leagues, ever since he was in school. He grew up idolizing players like Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Daisuke Matsuzaka. This is something he always wanted to do, and when he went for it [the World Baseball Classic] and being surrounded by some of these major league players, it really rubbed off on him. He became sure that ‘this is what I want to do as soon as possible’.”

As for what kind of factors Sasaki will prioritize in his free agency, Wolfe was more vague. He indicated that he and his client have yet to discuss such factors at length, given that Sasaki’s main focus for so long has been whether or not he will be published. Wolfe noted that some teams have already made presentations for Sasaki, but that in-person meetings have yet to begin. Wolfe himself said he has seen “three or four” of the presentations that have been made, but added that he expects more to be made. When asked how many teams scouted Sasaki last season in Japan, Wolfe said at least half the league did. .

Wolfe naturally declined to specify which teams made initial presentations or scouted his client in person. The immediate focus for Sasaki will simply be learning about the teams, organizations and cities he will choose from. It is expected to arrive in the United States this week, and after reviewing introductory presentations from interested teams, Sasaki and Wolfe will host the teams for an initial round of in-person visits at a central location, starting next week. Further waves of team visits, perhaps some to the finalists’ cities, will take place along the way, but Sasaki also plans to return to Japan for a week or two during the upcoming holidays.

Asked specifically whether Sasaki might consider a small market, Wolfe said it could be interesting but stressed that he had not confirmed this with his client:

“Yes, absolutely. I mean, I think you could argue that a small or mid-market team might be more beneficial to him, like a soft landing, coming from Japan and what he’s been through and not having a pleasant experience with the media – it might be . I’m not saying it Want be, but I don’t know how he will do it. It might be advantageous for him to operate in a smaller market, but I don’t know how he sees it yet because I haven’t had the chance to discuss it with him [at great length].”

Wolfe spoke at several points, once spontaneously, about media coverage of Sasaki in Japan, labeling it “in my personal opinion, a little unfair” and candidly acknowledging that it could sometimes have a negative impact on the young right-hander. :

“There was a lot of media negativity towards him because he expressed interest in going to play for MLB at such a young age. In Japan this is considered very disrespectful and a kind of swimming against the current. There were many things. Many people jumped on board, creating false rumors about him and his family, and this was harmful to his mental state.

Wolfe also stressed that wherever Sasaki lands, it won’t be a purely short-term financial decision:

“Given that the gap in bonus pool amounts is so negligible, my advice is: don’t make decisions based on that. The long-term arc of your career is where you’ll earn your money, so it’s probably not advisable to make a short-term decision about it. We consider all factors.”

Sasaki was officially named to the major league teams on December 9, kicking off a 45-day negotiation period for major league clubs. He must have a finalized contract by January 23rd. Wolfe noted that the signing is expected to occur after Jan. 15, so he can fall under the 2025 international free agent period, which begins that day. While Sasaki’s decision won’t be purely financial, Wolfe specified that MLB wants to ensure as much of a level playing field as possible and make sure that both Sasaki and his former team get the most advantageous deal possible, which is what the posting was formalized on Dec. 9, giving him the chance to extend his free agency until next year’s time, when all 30 MLB teams will have more international assets available.

It will be a tough pill to swallow for the Marines, regardless. Under the NPB/MLB posting system, former teams of NPB players receive a release fee equal to 20% of the first $25 million of the contract, 17.5% of the next $25 million and 15% of the next amount. In Yamamoto’s case, for example, his former club received a gigantic $54.375 million release fee from the Dodgers for agreeing to let Yamamoto go. Since Sasaki will sign for a fixed bonus that will likely come in at around $10 million, the Marines will likely receive a release fee of less than $2 million.

Sasaki pitched in parts of four NPB seasons and totaled 414 2/3 innings of 2.02 ERA ball with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. Any team that signs him will have control of him for at least six seasons. He cannot sign an immediate extension following his minor league agreement, pursuant to Attachment 46 of the 2022-26 Collective Bargaining Agreement, which indicates that any contract deemed to be a circumvention of the CBA will not be permitted by the office of the commissioner. Wolfe noted that MLB teams can’t technically even promise Sasaki a spot on the big league roster when signing him, let alone broker an extension in advance on a date to be determined.

It’s possible, in theory, that Sasaki could sign an extension later in his young MLB career — probably more than a year or two down the road — but Wolfe dismissed the idea that they would even be open to that. “If he was really, really good, the leverage would be on our side, so there wouldn’t be much incentive for us to sign a long-term extension.”