The Cubs are close to making a deal for Kyle Tucker

1.03pm: Cubs and Astros are ‘close’ to a deal on Tucker trade, Heyman tweets. Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2 reports that the two sides have discussed a return that would send Paredes, Smith and a third player to Houston.

12.56pm: Talks between the two sides “continued to gain momentum,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports. Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that Smith and Paredes are “among the names in discussion,” suggesting that others may actually be in play.

9.10am: The Cubs and Astros are in talks over a trade that would send a star outfielder Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for an interior Isaac Paredes and 2024 first-round pick Cam Smithreports Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. It is not yet clear whether other players on both sides are involved. There is no indication that a deal is anywhere near the finish line.

Tucker, 27, only recently emerged as a viable trade candidate. The former No. 5 overall player became an everyday player in 2020 and has since elevated himself to one of the best young players ever. Over the past four seasons, he has a .280/.362/.527 slash with 112 homers, 80 steals, an 11.3% walk rate and just a 15.1% strikeout rate. A fractured shin cost him much of the 2024 season, but he had his most productive season ever when healthy: .289/.408/.585, 23 homers, 16.5% walk rate in 78 games .

Tucker is a year away from hitting free agency at 28 and is poised to command the kind of mega-contract that Astros owner Jim Crane has been unwilling to offer; Houston’s longest contract with Crane was Jordan Alvarezit’s a six-year, $115 million contract. José Altuve’The system’s $151 million extension is the largest in terms of overall collateral. Tucker could get double that guarantee in free agency for a significantly longer period than Alvarez’s deal.

For the Cubs, adding Tucker would only further increase the likelihood of a trade Cody Bellinger and/or Seiya Suzuki. Tucker would supplant both in right field. Chicago already has some young people Michael Busch at first base and Pete Crow-Armstrong in the central field. Left winger Ian Happ has a full no-trade clause. There would be no obvious place to play Bellinger or Suzuki other than designated hitter. It would be a waste of Bellinger’s solid defensive skills, and Suzuki prefers to play the field rather than slot in as the primary DH. He also has a full no-trade clause, which further complicates things.

Also worth keeping in mind are the trio of player contracts. Tucker is entering his final season of club control and will make $15.8 million next season, according to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Bellinger is guaranteed a $27.5 million salary next season and has a $25 million player option with a $5 million buyout for the 2026 season. Essentially, he is guaranteed at least $32.5 million for one year and perhaps $52.5 million over the next two seasons, pending his opt-out decision. Suzuki has two years remaining on his five-year, $85 million contract and will earn $18 million in each of the next two seasons.

For the Astros, trading Tucker would be a tough pill to swallow. Crane has expressed a willingness to pay the luxury tax if the right situation arises, but appears to clearly prefer to avoid doing so for what would be the second consecutive season. The ‘Stros are looking to bring in the longtime third baseman Alex Bregmann has returned to the fold, but is seeking a deal north of $200 million while Houston’s most recent reported offer was for six years and $156 million. The fact that the Astros are considering not only an immediate big league option at hot corner (Paredes) but also a recent first-round pick whose primary position is third base (Smith) implies at least some pessimism about completing a meeting with Bregman.

That said, the Astros also need first base. Paredes could fill that role capably, as he has played all four infield positions during his big league career. He has primarily been a third baseman, but has nearly 400 innings at first base under his belt. It’s at least possible that the Astros could use the payroll space created by a potential Tucker trade to re-sign Bregman, play Paredes at first base, and then settle for simply adding a player with Smith’s overall upside at the upper levels of their system. In any case, Smith likely won’t be a big league option until 2026, and his bat is his calling card; a move to an outside corner isn’t out of the question at some point.

Paredes, 26 in February, moved from the Rays to the Cubs at the 2024 trade deadline and has struggled in his new surroundings. The versatile slugger hit .250/.342/.488 and hit 31 homers for Tampa Bay in 2023 and seemed on track to approach that production in ’24 when he hit .245/.357/.435 with the Rays before the trade. With Chicago, however, Paredes slumped to a tepid .223/.305/.307 slash line in 212 plate appearances.

Despite these struggles, Paredes is a .234/.338/.437 hitter (123 wRC+) who has swatted 70 homers while playing four different positions over the past three seasons. He hit a solid 11.2% of his plate appearances during that span versus a 17.3% strikeout rate that is about five percentage points lower than average. He is projected to make $6.9 million in 2025 and will be under club control through the 2027 season. He would be a long-term addition for the Astros who can help out at a variety of positions and who would offer a solid bat against righties and greater production against lefties (.274/.366/.456). On top of that, he ranked third among all qualified MLB hitters in strike percentage this season and posted the second-lowest ground ball rate in the same set. A hard-hitting right-handed bat with that kind of propensity to lift the ball seems almost tailor-made for Houston’s short left-field porch.

Smith, meanwhile, was just selected with the No. 1 pick. 14 last summer and signed for a bonus just over $5 million. The Florida State product literally set minor league pitching on fire with a .313/.396/.609 slash in 134 plate appearances across two levels of Class A and Double A. It was one of the best debut performances of any inductee and it only served to further elevate its already sizable stock of potential customers. Baseball America ranks Smith sixth in a deep Cubs farm system that boasted six of the game’s top 100 prospects in 2024. Smith will likely be included in several top-100 rankings ahead of the 2025 season.

Currently, RosterResource projects the Astros to have a payroll of $215 million with nearly $234 million in luxury tax obligations. That leaves them about $7 million short of this season’s $241 million tax threshold. Moving Tucker would open up some breathing room, as would a reliever trade Ryan Pressleywhose name has also frequented the rumor circuit this offseason. He is owed $14 million, but can veto any trade scenario as a 10- and 5-rights player (10 years of MLB service, including the last five with the same team). Astros general manager Dana Brown said earlier in the offseason that his club may need to be “creative” to fill roster needs amid payroll uncertainty and talk about potential deals involving Tucker, Pressly and lefty Framber Valdez they’re all under that umbrella.