A’s Hope Springs returns to peak, Pay Rays four-piece price

The Athletics and the Rays completed a four-for-two trade Friday centered on 32-year-old left-handed starter Jeffrey Springs, who is headed to Northern California. The A’s also landed left-handed swingman Jacob Lopez, while the Rays received right-hander Joe Boyle, two minor leaguers (first baseman Will Simpson and right-handed pitcher Jacob Watters) and the 36th overall pick in the 2025 draft.

Springs, who is under contract through at least 2026, had a breakout season in 2022 when the Rays moved him from the bullpen into their rotation, and he amassed 3.1 WAR in 135 1/3 innings. He hurt a few starts in 2023 and needed Tommy John surgery, which cost him the remainder of 2023 and much of 2024. After returning from an extended minor league rehab stint of 12 starts, Springs had good surface-level stats in the big leagues – 7 GS, 33 IP, 37 Ks, 1.36 WHIP, 3.27 ERA – but showed diminished stuff compared to his pre-TJ form. Ken Rosenthal reported that Springs was closed in September on the advice of its surgeon.

Springs joins an Athletics team full of exciting young hitters but in desperate need of pitchers, something they’ve addressed not only with this trade but with the recent acquisition of veteran Luis Severino ( analysis here ). The trade also adds payroll to the Athletics’ ledger, which they will likely have to continue to expand to avoid a complaint from the MLB Players Association.

Springs’ fastball averaged 90 mph in his big league starts in 2024, about a tick and a half below where it was in 2022-2023. As you might imagine, some other data from Springs indicates how much more vulnerable it is at that speed; gave up a 45.2% hard hit rate (36.5% career) and a 9.7% barrel rate (7.7% career) overall in 2024, and against only his opposing hitters with a fastball he managed to reach a superstar level of 140 wRC+. The rest of Springs’ repertoire is intact, especially his modification, which remains an excellent missing club weapon and has generated his usual plus-plus swinging hit rate again in 2024. Springs will vary the shape of his slider from a standard bullet style to sometimes a more side-action sweeper, and it looked like it came back from rehab with a brand new cutter.

The projection systems we present here at the office think that a healthy Springs will be the team’s most productive starting point. The Athletics’ ZiPS projections only had some of their incumbent starters exceeding 1 WAR, while FGDC and Steamer have Springs as a starter at 2-WAR, slightly better than their projections for Severino. But those projections have Springs lining up over 150 innings, never coming close to pitching. Springs had a good season as a starter throughout his career and worked 135 innings that year. He’ll make $10.5 million in each of the next two seasons (and the A’s have a $15 million team option for 2027), and if Springs can get anywhere near his production in 2022 he’ll be a relative bargain at that figure.

The Athletics also received 26-year-old left-hander Jacob Lopez, who had been a rarely used starter/swingman in each of the last two seasons. He has eight career big league appearances, two of them as a starter, and is now in his final year of options. Lopez has spent most of the last two years as a starter at Triple-A Durham. He’s a low-slot, cross-body lefty whose best attribute is his slide command. Lopez mixes four-seamers and low 90s sinkers with a lot of good 70s sliders. He comes through with an occasional changeup and has the tools to deal with both-handed hitters, though none of his pitches are particularly bad. Lopez is a below-average athlete with a lower effort designed for consistency. This type of pitcher tends to function as a starting spot until their options run out, and then they sink or swim into a low-leverage relief role. With only one option left, Lopez has a good chance to make the A’s Opening Day roster and pitch enough in the big leagues to lose rookie status in 2025.

The A’s rotation becomes more stable with the move from Joe Boyle to Springs as the next pitches hit, and with this move they take another step toward the division rivals who finished ahead of them in last year’s standings. This comes at the cost of a high pick in a good draft and Boyle’s potential ceiling. The comp pick headed to Tampa Bay is 36th overall in the draft. My overall assessment of the 2025 Draft is that it has good depth, the level of players that normally appear in the competition round extends into the second round. The Rays now have four of the first 51 picks in the draft and related bonus pool space. It’s not typical for a small-market team like the Athletics to part with a draft like this unless they’re obviously competing. Aside from the occasional trade, the most common way teams like the A’s and Rays can acquire a franchise-altering player is through the draft.

The 6-foot-7 Boyle was developed as a starter throughout his pro career and graduated from rookie status as a member of Oakland’s rotation last year, but he has had severe walking issues since high school and it is projected as a relief for his prospect’s entire life. However, Boyle could be a big deal as a reliever. He sits 98 as a starter and does it with comical ease, but without any sensitivity to the position. Boyle’s two breaking balls (a high-80s slider and a low-80s curveball) are both very bad (his slider has absurd movement for his velocity) but, again, his total lack of control dilutes the effectiveness of both.

It’s possible the Rays will attempt to do with Boyle what they successfully accomplished with Tyler Glasnow: simplify his delivery to make it more consistent and hope that’s enough for him to be a five-inning starter. Boyle has two option years left, which gives them a little more time to try something like this. If they want to put Boyle in the bullpen immediately — part of the reason the Rays view Springs as expendable is perhaps because of their starting pitcher’s depth, and they think Boyle can be converted to the pen — it’s possible Boyle will be their best reliever by half season, but it’s also possible that he’s too wild to trust. Boyle has posted walk rates above 16% at virtually every professional level and is now 25; that might just be what it is.

The Rays’ two new minor leaguers are Will Simpson and Jacob Watters. Simpson, a late selection by Washington in 2023, spent most of 2024 at High-A Lansing but reached Double-A Midland by the end of the year. Additionally, Simpson’s bat speed and strength make him a threat from foul pole to foul pole, and he posted an .860 OPS in 2024, but a grooved swing and marginal third base defense create the risk of Simpson becoming a first baseman with harmful contact problems. A Patrick Wisdom type outcome would be fantastic for Simpson.

Watters, a 2022 fourth-rounder from West Virginia, repeated High-A in 2024 and had a bloated ERA for the second straight season. He sits at 94, touches 96 and has a flashier low 80s curveball. Below-average command funnels his rating toward the bullpen, but if Watters has peak velocity in such a role, then he could easily have the two-plus pitches typical of a solid center fielder.

Both Simpson and Watters are in the minor leagues and probably two or three years away from the major leagues, if they get there at all. Whoever the Rays draft with their new pick is probably even further away. While four pieces seems like a lot to give up for two years of the recently injured Springs at $10.5 million per year, with the exception of Boyle (who may simply be too wild to be good), all of these pieces are far from accrue into major profits. Northern League members. The Rays shed a significant portion of their payroll, cleared a 40-man roster spot, opportunistically picked up a high draft pick, and got a guy who could have immediate upside through something as simple as a move to the bullpen. The trade was perfect for the Rays. While we can understand the many valid reasons why the A’s made this move, it’s hard to stomach a first-round draft pick for a fairly well-compensated guy who is 90 years old.