Nolan Arenado reportedly uses no-trade clause to block deal with Astros

The Cardinals are known to be looking to make trades Nolan Arenado this offseason, but talks are complicated by the fact that he has a no-trade clause in his contract. According to a report today from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Cards and Astros were in discussions about a trade to send him to Houston before Arenado informed St. Louis that he would not waive his no-trade clause to join to the Astros. The Athletic’s Katie Woo and Chandler Rome provided some additional details.

The Cardinals are planning for 2025 to be a reset year of sorts, which has put Arenado’s name in trade rumors in recent months. During last week’s winter meetings, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he intended to try to get a deal done. The idea would seem mutually beneficial. Arenado will turn 34 in March and could have a chance to go to a club with more immediate goals of playing competitive baseball. The cards would save some money and give more playing time to check out less established players Nolan Gorman OR Jordan Walker.

But as mentioned, Arenado has a say through the no-trade clause. Last week it was reported that he would approve a trade with six teams: Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets or Red Sox. It wasn’t clear if it was a comprehensive list, but the Astros weren’t on it. According to today’s report from Woo and Rome, the list originally included the Astros but they were removed, perhaps due to the recent Kyle Tucker trade and uncertainty around Alex Bregmann situation.

Speaking of Bregman, he has long been Houston’s third baseman, although there are some signs they are planning to move on. In the years leading up to his free agency, they repeatedly said they wanted to re-sign him, but a deal never came. He hasn’t signed a contract yet, but there has reportedly been a gap in negotiations, with the club offering him $156 million over six years while he was looking for something more in the $200 million range.

On top of that, the Astros made a big trade last week that likely got them a replacement for Bregman at the hot corner. By sending Tucker to the Cubs, the Astros got back three players, one of whom was Isaac Paredes. Although Paredes played all four infield positions, he played third base far more than the other three positions combined.

But following that trade, it was reported that the Astros were emerging as “a serious suitor” for Arenado. Since Arenado is renowned for his defense at third base, the plan would presumably be to move Paredes to first base, as that is also a target area for Houston. Although it appears Arenado doesn’t agree, which puts the entire plan on ice for now.

It’s unclear what the full deal was or why Arenado decided to silence it. All reports have suggested that winning is Arenado’s primary motivation with his next theoretical team and the Astros would seemingly fit the bill. Despite just trading Tucker, they are still planning to compete again in 2025 and have been one of the winningest clubs over the past decade. Maybe his decision has something to do with geography, the Astros sign-stealing scandal, or the Astros-Cardinals data breach scandal, though those would just be guesses. Woo and Rome’s relationship suggests he wants more time to make his decision and that’s not final.

Aside from Arenado blocking the deal, the most notable item in today’s news is that the Cardinals were apparently willing to eat money. Arenado will make $74 million over the next three years, but $10 million will be covered by the Rockies as part of the trade that sent him from Colorado to St. Louis. There are also some deferrals, which apparently reduce the current value of what is owed from $64 million to around $60 million, according to the MLB.com column. But the Cards were willing to include $15-20 million so the Astros would only be on the hook for $40-45 million of that sum. The Athletic says the Cards were willing to eat $5 million per season for the remainder of the deal, or exactly $15 million.

This is a sensible position for the Cards to take. While payroll reduction is a target for the planned recovery year, it is already expected to be well below recent spending levels. RosterResource projects 2025 payrolls to be nearly $40 million below 2024 levels. Trading Arenado, even if they eat up some of the money, would only widen that gap allowing the club to get a return most notable in terms of young talent.

It may also have helped the Astros remain subject to the competitive balance tax, with RosterResource currently placing their number at $225 million. If they were to accept about three years and $45 million of Arenado’s deal, that would add $15 million to their number and put them around the $241 million base cap.

Now the biggest questions will be what comes next for each club. Both reports suggest the Astros and Cardinals will continue to discuss, but it’s possible they may have to pivot to other options while they’re still available, depending on how soon Arenado wants to make a decision on Houston. The Astros could try to restart negotiations with Bregman or pivot to a first baseman like Christian Walker. The Cardinals could try to negotiate a new deal with one of the other clubs that Arenado is perhaps less reluctant to join.

Arenado was an MVP finalist just a couple of years ago, but his offense has declined in recent years. In 2022, he hit 30 home runs and slashed .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+. When combined with his excellent glove work, FanGraphs credited him with 7.2 wins above replacement that year. But over the last two years, he’s hitting .269/.320/.426 for a 104 WRC+, just above league average. At that time he was still worth almost 3 fWAR per year thanks to defense, but it’s obviously a worrying drop. Most of his home runs come on the bright side, so playing in front of Houston’s Crawford Boxes might be a good fit for him, but he’d have to want it.