Sailors and keepers discussed Josh Naylor

As the Mariners seek the base’s first upgrades this winter, they have had some talks with the Guardians Josh Nayloraccording to Jon Morosi of MLB Network. There are no indications that the two sides are in any kind of advanced talks, but the fit is a natural one for an M’s club looking to improve their attack and a Guardians team that has been open to offers on Naylor and winger Thomas Lane as they enter their final seasons of control of the club.

According to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projections, Naylor, 27, will make $12 million next season before hitting free agency next winter. He’s fresh off a career-high 31 homers and a .243/.320/.456 batting line (118 wRC+) with a 9.2% walk rate and just a 16.6% strikeout rate. The Mariners have openly expressed over the last year their desire to reduce their team-wide strikeout rate. Adding power and reducing the strikeout rate at the same time are often at odds with each other, but Naylor is the type of bat that can help them achieve both goals at once.

A Naylor trade to a Cleveland club that just re-signed Shane Bieber and is clearly intent on contending in 2025 might seem counterproductive at first glance, but the perpetual tightrope walk of trading quality veterans for young talent while still trying to field a winning club is nothing new for the Guards. They just downloaded Andrés Gimenez and his contract in what amounted to a three-team trade that brought in a powerful right-hander Luis Ortiz to Cleveland from Pittsburgh. This reduced their projected payroll to around $97 million, according to RosterResource. Losing Naylor would set him back $85 million in opening hours Kyle Manzardo at first base (and perhaps creating more room for some smaller-scale free agent additions).

At the same time, it should be noted that a Naylor trade is not a given. The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd wrote recently that he had a feeling a first baseman swap was becoming less likely, as the Guards were unimpressed by anything offered by other clubs. (A single text or phone call can change that, of course.) Understandably, Cleveland won’t move a player with Naylor’s skill only to lose payroll; they would need to feel like they’re getting legitimate value in return, especially since with a season comparable to his performances in 2022-24, a then-28-year-old Naylor will be a qualifying offer candidate next offseason.

For the Mariners, Naylor would provide a boost to a club he has seen Justin Turner reach free agency at the end of the season. Turner was the club’s primary first baseman last year after a deadline trade brought him to Seattle. The M’s have Luca Raley as an option at first base, but could also mix in the outfield and designated hitter. Prospect Tyler Locklear he’s ready for a big league look, but a postseason hopeful like the Mariners might not want to simply hand over first base to an unproven 24-year-old who posted league-average numbers in Triple-A last season and hit .156/ .224/.311 with a 41% strikeout rate in his first 49 MLB plate appearances.

The M’s also have interest in bringing in Turner or a veteran Carlo Santana return to Seattle. (Santana played with the M’s in 2023.) The team’s top priority right now appears to be upgrading at first base, then adding help at third or second base, probably the former. Internal options like Dylan Moore, Ryan Bliss and (eventually) the best prospect Cole Young could consider second base if the bottom line improves on both corners.

Naylor’s projected salary is likely within the Mariners’ reported budget — about $15 million to spend, give or take, according to Adam Jude of the Seattle Times — but likely doesn’t leave room for another noteworthy addition. The Mariners would certainly appreciate finding a way to offload contracts Mitch Haniger $15.5 million in 2025) and/or Mitch Garver ($12.5 million in 2025), but that would be a tall order. The presence of those unwieldy contracts, coupled with a budget-strapped second offseason on the part of ownership, make another round of trades by Seattle’s ever-active front office more likely than a series of free agent splashes aimed at re-signing once again an offense that has struggled to produce in a highly pitcher-friendly environment.