The Cardinals rejected Stroman’s offer for Arenado

Earlier this offseason, the Cardinals rejected an offer from the Yankees that he could have sent Marco Stroman to St. Louis for Nolan Arenadoaccording to a report by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Bryan Hoch. It is unknown whether Arenado would have approved such a trade. MLB.com reports that the Cardinals never took the star third baseman because they weren’t interested in acquiring Stroman.

This does not mean that the negotiations between the clubs over Arenado are over. The Yankees still need both infield corner positions. Feinsand, Denton, and Hoch report showing increasing interest in Paul Goldschmidt at first base. They write that signing Goldschmidt could make Arenado more likely to waive his no-trade clause to join his former teammate as a corner interior tandem in the Bronx.

Various reports have tied the Yankees to Goldschmidt this week. It appears they will turn to one of the short-term free agent options to upgrade first base. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Thursday that the Yankees were increasingly likely to pursue a cheaper first baseman rather than spend at the top of the market for Pietro Alonso OR Christian Walker. Walker, who the Yankees reportedly chose over Alonso, later came off the board in a $60 million deal with Houston.

Interestingly, Goldschmidt’s asking price could prove to be a sticking point in itself. Most predictions, including those from MLBTR, assumed he would sign a one-year contract when he entered his age-37 season. Feinsand, Denton and Hoch report that Goldschmidt is seeking more years. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll find a two-year deal, of course, which would be a tall ask after a midseason.

Goldschmidt hit .245/.302/.414 with 22 homers during his senior year in St. Louis. He recorded the worst strikeout and walk rates of his career with an overall offense that measured exactly league average. Goldschmidt had a better second half after a disappointing start to the season, but the overall numbers are concerning given his age. MLBTR felt he would secure $15 million on a one-year deal.

Money is also a complicating factor on Arenado. Even if the Yankees signed Goldschmidt and Arenado were willing to play there, they would still need to find an agreeable return with St. Louis. The Cardinals owe the eight-time All-Star $64 million over the next three seasons, while the Rockies are on the hook for another $10 million between 2025 and 2026. (Colorado’s obligations would be maintained in the event of a trade.) $ 12 million of the Cardinals’ $64 million is deferred. MLB.com writes that the net present value of what St. Louis owes is about $60 million.

The Cardinals are looking to give up at least the vast majority of that deal. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that the Astros would have absorbed about $45 million if Arenado hadn’t vetoed the proposed trade with Houston earlier this week. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported otherwise, writing that Houston would get $59 million. In both cases, the Cardinals would have paid most of the money.

Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote this afternoon that the extent of the Yankees’ interest in Arenado depends on how much of the deal the Cardinals would cover. While it’s unknown how much the Yankees want to eat in St. Louis, their Stroman proposal would have been a financial counterbalance. The righty will make $18 million next season and would trigger a corresponding player option for 2026 if he pitches 140 innings. An Arenado/Stroman trade would have gotten the Cardinals off the hook for the former’s salaries in 2026-27, but wouldn’t have represented a significant cut next season.

Arenado will have a $32 million salary next year, $5 million of which is Colorado’s responsibility. Another $6 million is deferred, so the immediate savings for St. Louis would have been only $3 million. The Cardinals could have tried to flip Stroman themselves. The right-hander is coming off a 4.31 ERA over 154 2/3 innings. His salary is above market but not egregiously so, but it doesn’t appear the Cardinals had any interest in that sequence of moves.

A player’s competitive balance tax code resets if they are traded. Assuming the NPV on Arenado’s contract is about three years and $60 million, he would have a luxury tax of about $20 million for an acquiring team if the Cardinals don’t eat money. RosterResource estimates New York’s luxury tax code at around $287 million. Signing Goldschmidt or taking the bulk of Arenado’s contract would push them over the final $301 million tax bracket. Doing both would put them well above $301 million, resulting in a 110% tax on every dollar spent from then on.