The Red Sox will sign Walker Buehler

The Red Sox are on board with the right-hander Walker Buehler on a one-year contract worth $21.05 million, according to a report from Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports. The deal is awaiting a physical closing and includes incentives that could increase the value beyond the figure mentioned above.

It’s an interesting deal for Buehler, as the $21.05 million guarantee perfectly mirrors that of the qualifying offer. Both Buehler himself and the Red Sox right-hander Nick Pivetta were considered borderline candidates for QO extension in early winter. Ultimately, the Dodgers declined to extend the offer to Buehler while the Red Sox did so for Pivetta but were rebuffed. From a financial and roster perspective, today’s deal allows Buehler to secure the same guarantee he would have gotten if the Dodgers had extended him QO, while also allowing Boston to add a veteran right-hander to its young rotation on a one-year contract that mirrors the one they offered Pivetta last month.

The 30-year-old right-hander was among the most talented young starters in the league during his rookie season in 2018, and had an excellent 2.82 ERA (146 ERA+) with a 3.16 FIP in four seasons from 2018-21. That stretch ended with Buehler finishing fourth in NL Cy Young award voting behind Corbin Burnes, Zack WheelerAND Max Schezer in a match that seemingly cemented his status as one of the championship’s top aces. However, that career trajectory was knocked off the rails at the start of the 2023 season. Buehler pitched to a relatively pedestrian 4.02 ERA (101 ERA+) in 12 starts for the Dodgers that year before going on the injured list in June and eventually require Tommy John surgery.

Buehler wouldn’t return to a major league mound until May 2024, nearly two full years later, and he struggled mightily in his return. Additional injuries limited Buehler to just 16 starts for the Dodgers this year, and even when he took over the right-hander struggled mightily. In all, Buehler pitched to a 5.38 ERA (72 ERA+) with a 5.54 FIP in his final regular season in a Dodgers uniform. That said, the righty managed to finish his season on a strong note with a solid 3.60 ERA during the club’s run to this year’s World Series championship. After a brutal start against the Padres in the NLDS, Buehler fired ten scoreless frames between the NLCS and World Series while striking out a third of his opponents.

That combination of a strong postseason, a terrible regular season, an injury-riddled history and a dominant track record have made Buehler one of the most intriguing free agents on the market this winter and perhaps the ultimate high-risk, high-reward signing. To that end, it’s perhaps unsurprising that he’s garnered interest from a huge number of teams. In addition to the Red Sox, Buehler also attracted interest from the Tigers, Cubs, Mets, Yankees, Athletics and Braves this winter. This wide-ranging interest made it apparent early in the winter that Buehler was likely to surpass the $15 million one-year deal that MLBTR had projected to make our annual list of MLB’s top 50 free agents, where Buehler was ranked as the no. 37 free agents this winter. It even seemed to open the door to the possibility that the right-winger could conclude a multi-year opt-out agreement; While he ultimately settled on a one-year pact, his $21.05 million salary in 2025 is likely much healthier than what he would have received on an annual basis on a multi-year contract.

For the Red Sox, the addition of Buehler adds another arm with plenty of upside to a rotation already full of it. If Buehler can recapture the form he showed early in his career, he will make a daunting forward in Boston’s rotation alongside the lefty. Garrett crochet with right-handers Luca Giolito AND Tanner Houck joining them to create a formidable quartet. The additions of Crochet and Buehler also significantly deepened the group, as they are right-handed Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Richard FittsAND Cooper Criswell all appear to be in the conversation for the start as well after being key pieces of the club’s rotation last year. Further down the depth chart, the Red Sox also boast interesting upside plays Quinn Priest AND Michael Fulmer.

According to RosterResource, the addition of Buehler brings the club’s 2025 payroll to just over $175 million. The figure is substantially higher for luxury tax purposes, however, coming in at just under $212 million. That leaves the club with about $29 million to work with before crossing the first luxury tax threshold. The Red Sox last crossed that first threshold in 2022, but there has been no indication from club brass that the first threshold represents a hard limit on their spending in what has been quite an offseason challenging for the club. With the rotation seemingly solidified, it seems likely that the club’s priorities will now shift towards adding a right-handed bat to their lineup, whether that comes in the form of an outfielder like Teoscar Hernández or an interior like Alex Bregmann OR Nolan Arenado.