Why the Twins might consider trading Pablo Lopez

It’s been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for the second straight offseason. Minnesota’s signature Carlos Correa and the extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason — among other moves — have pushed the club’s payroll into the $150-160 million range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad stepped back when his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a much bigger role. This change in ownership, combined with the long-term nature of such agreements, made it appear that there would be a lasting increase in wages.

Clearly this was not the case. Amid uncertainty surrounding the team’s broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll to $130 million for the 2024 season. The Twins largely skipped the 2023-24 offseason, with their moves larger ones arrived through the commercial market (dealing Jorge Polacco in Seattle) and in the free agency trade corridor (a $5.25 million deal for Carlo Santana being the most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intention to explore a potential sale of the team.

This has led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins’ complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins’ payroll to be around $142 million. Ownership would like the value to return to the $130 million range again. It is expected that at some point they will trade correctly Chris Paddackwhose $7.5 million salary seems quite affordable when compared to this winter’s aggressive rookie market. They will acquire Christian Vazquez but will have to eat some of his $10 million salary. A profession of their excellent utilitarian, Willi Castrocould also be explored.

Speculation about the possibility of large-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said earlier in the offseason that the team sees Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as “key” players to the team’s prospects for 2025. Falvey stressed that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, though it appears he will be forced to find ways to reduce player payroll before making a single addition.

A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He will be owed $128 million over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also enjoys full trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a much more compelling thought exercise. Lopez’s contract is full of surplus value in a way that isn’t true – or isn’t AS true, however, of the Twins’ other more expensive players.

Trading Lopez would spark a swift reaction from an already frustrated and disheartened fan base. At the same time, the huge return and potential avenues to restructure the team in the wake of such an astonishing deal are compelling enough that it’s understandable for the Twins to perform their due diligence to at least see what the market could bear.

Let’s dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade might actually appeal to the Twins, who might be involved, and how the Twins might proceed (and possibly improve) next.