Three-United: Guardians re-sign Carlos Santana (again), trade Josh Naylor to Diamondbacks

I hope you spared a thought this holiday season for the poor Naylor brothers. In a premise tailor-made for a lesser Hallmark movie, their time as teammates ended just four days before Christmas, when the Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi and a B-rounder of competitive balance. draft pick. Just 21 minutes after Jeff Passan broke the family-splitting news, he also reported that veteran first baseman Carlos Santana had agreed to a one-year, $12 million contract to fill the hole left by Naylor in the infield. Cleveland. He did not report on what, if anything, would fill the void left in Bo Naylor’s heart.

After five years away, Santana returns home to Cleveland for the third time – another solid premise for a Hallmark movie. In fact, he still has a home in Cleveland. Or at least he did. He put him on the market a few weeks ago and closed the sale two days before signing with the Guardians. Another funny note about Santana’s hiring: he almost broke the We Tried Tracker. Ken Rosenthal listed seven other teams that were involved with Santana: “The Seattle Mariners, Santana’s 2022 team, had been trying to reunite with him pretty much the entire offseason and were pushing for a solution. Santana said both New York, Detroit and Arizona were in the mix, while San Diego and Texas had asked him to wait. If you’re keeping score at home, there are four teams that were in the mix, two in the brand new category of asking the player to wait, and then the extraordinarily thirsty Mariners. As you may have noticed, Rosenthal cites Santana himself as the source of this information. If more players spoke to reporters about the interest they received, the tracker would seem much more robust.

After running a combined 94 wRC+ from 2020 to 2023, Santana suddenly rediscovered his form with the Twins in 2024. In his age-38 season, Santana ran 114 wRC+ with 23 home runs, and his 11 fielding runs earned him his first gold. Glove. He racked up 3.0 WAR, more than he totaled in all but two of his 15 years in the big leagues, and good for the fifth-most WAR among first basemen last season. His average contact quality hasn’t strayed far from his career standards, and his vaunted batting eye has remained as strong as ever. The big difference is that 23.8% of his batted balls came in the form of line drives or strike-side fly balls. This is his highest rate since 2014. Focusing on pull-side power has been a major organizational goal for the Twins, so much so that before the season Trevor Larnach decided he had gone too far in that direction and needed to develop a more balanced system approach. Whether the Twins were responsible for it or not, this change in approach certainly worked for Santana, and the Guardians hope he can keep both bat and glove for another year.

As for the Diamondbacks, they’re in their first taste of life without a cornerstone at cold corner since 2010. Naylor may not be the ultimate Paul Goldschmidt or Christian Walker, but he’s been a top-10 first baseman for the past three years. As first basemen who play harder than the numbers suggest, Naylor and Santana have a lot in common. Both players are under six feet tall and both are dependent on the home run ball despite lacking eye-popping exit velocities. Naylor hits the ground ball more often and doesn’t have Santana’s gift for staying in the strike zone, but he hits the ball harder. Despite comparable average exit velocities and hard-hit rates, Naylor’s 90th percentile exit velocity was 106 mph, significantly higher than Santana’s 103.7 mph mark. In 2024, despite having a bottom-quartile groundball rate, Naylor had the first 30-homer season of his career, along with a 118 wRC+. He has now reached that level or higher in each of the last three seasons. His 2.3 WAR ranked 11th among first basemen in 2024, and his 7.0 WAR over the past three seasons ranked eighth.

Santana’s deal is exactly the same amount MLB Trade Rumors predicted Naylor would get in his final year of arbitration, and that’s what makes this move Cleveland. The Guardians are taking more risks due to Santana’s age and giving up the major upside in Naylor, but they essentially traded two similar players for identical prices and ended up with a draft pick and an interesting arm in Cecconi. Steamer projects Naylor will post 2.0 WAR next season, compared to 1.2 for Santana. You can see why, on the “Five and Dive” podcast, Jeffrey Paternostro called the move “so Guardians (derogatory).” Cleveland put a lot of work into making its first base a little trickier in exchange for a couple of long throws.

Cecconi announced his arrival in Arizona in 2023 with a bang, and I mean that literally. He made four starts and three relief appearances, posting a 4.33 ERA and a 4.37 FIP. Cecconi entered the 2024 season as the no. 5 overall and star pitcher in their system, but struggled mightily, posting a 6.66 ERA and a 5.02 FIP. He bounced between the minors and majors and was sent to the bullpen in late July, but his 4.49 xERA and 4.70 xFIP – while still nothing to write home about – were far less concerning. Cecconi doesn’t rack up many whiffs or strikeouts, doesn’t have great ground rhythm, and doesn’t avoid hard contact. But what he does have is solid control, a fastball that can reach 98 mph, three other pitches that rate above average according to Pitching Bot, Stuff+ and StuffPro, and .155 service years.

The Rays were rumored to be interested in him at the trade deadline, and it’s entirely possible the Guardians turn him into a serviceable pitcher. While his fastball can reach 98, his average is closer to 94 and was rocked last season. Somehow, the Diamondbacks still let Cecconi throw 55% of the time. Maybe the Guardians will take him to the pitching lab and help him find a fastball that works. Maybe they’ll make him a full-time helper to get his speed back up to speed. They will definitely make him turn on the stove less often. Then again, maybe they just wanted that draft pick.