The Diamondbacks will sign Corbin Burnes

The Diamondbacks are in on the right-handed free agent Corbin Burnes with a six-year contract worth $210 million, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Boras Corporation customer will have the option to opt out after the 2026 campaign.

The news is a shocking turn of events as Burnes had garnered a lot of interest in free agency but had not been linked to Arizona at any point in the offseason. While some rumored suitors for the right-hander’s services like the Yankees and Red Sox have turned to alternative options to front their rotations by signing Massimo Fritto and exchange for Garrett crochet respectively, a number of known stakeholders remained in the mix. That included not only the incumbent Orioles, but also the big-market Giants and Blue Jays, both of whom USA Today’s Bob Nightengale said offered the Burnes a bigger guarantee. Nightengale notes that the state of Arizona has a much lower income tax rate than California or Ontario, Canada. In addition to this financial incentive, Burnes resides in Scottsdale, Arizona, and will certainly appreciate the opportunity to play close to home.

Not to be discounted as a potential factor in Burnes’ decision is the opportunity to opt out. It’s currently unclear whether the right-hander’s other offers have afforded him the same flexibility, and until the full financial breakdown of the deal is available it won’t be entirely clear how much money Burnes would be leaving on the table by giving it up. If the $210 million guarantee were spread evenly across the six seasons of the deal, however, it’s not at all difficult to imagine Burnes exceeding the $140 million guarantee after his age-32 campaign, as long as he continues pitching at his current level of ace. level. At the beginning of this offseason, Blake Snell got a $182 million guarantee from the Dodgers before his age-32 season, and a look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker reveals that Zack Greinke, Max SchezerAND Jacob de Grom they all signed free agent contracts that guaranteed nine figures more than their age-32 or older campaigns.

Going back to Burnes’ newly signed contract, however, the deal falls short of Burnes’ previously stated goal of matching the $245 million guarantee the Nationals offered to the right-hander. Stefano Strasbourg during the 2019-20 offseason. With full assurance, the contract actually falls in about the same ballpark as MLBTR’s $200 million seven-year prediction we made earlier in the offseason as part of our annual list of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents , where Burnes placed second in the class behind only Juan Soto. A closer look at the deal reveals that Burnes followed in the footsteps of virtually every other pitcher this winter and still got a deal that exceeds expectations. The $35 million average annual deal value dwarfs MLBTR’s projected $28.57 million AAV and even matches Strasburg, while the opt-out opportunity provides its own value in the form of flexibility, as mentioned previously.

For the Diamondbacks, it’s a huge financial outlay that beats Greinke’s aforementioned six-year, $206.5 million deal for the largest guarantee in franchise history. Setting a club record for total guarantee in free agency would be noteworthy for any club, but it’s especially surprising coming from an Arizona team that previously indicated it planned to run a 2025 payroll that more or less matched the 2024 figure. As noted by RosterResource, Arizona spent just $173 million in payroll in 2024 and after signing Burnes is projected to receive $194 million in payroll in 2025. This increase of more than $20 million brings payroll to a completely unprecedented level for the franchise after setting a payroll record just last year. It’s certainly no secret that the club is trying to overcome the left-handed curve Jordan Montgomery on the transfer market this winter, but even if the club managed to lose the majority of his wages, they would still be putting themselves in uncharted territory financially by signing Burnes.

That’s not to say there’s little risk to take, of course. Burnes established himself as among the league’s best starters with Milwaukee during the shortened 2020 season, where he finished sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting. He followed that performance up by going out and winning the award the following year, and the four-time All-Star has been on the shortlist for the game’s top rotation arms ever since. Over the past five seasons, Burnes has ranked fifth among qualified MLB starters in innings pitched, second in fWAR, fourth in ERA, sixth in FIP and third in strikeouts. Of course, much of that is due to a dominant 2021 season that saw Burnes lead the sport in ERA (2.43), FIP (1.69) and strikeout rate (35.6%).

Since then, some warning signs have emerged in the right-hander’s profile, as he has begun to delve into plays at the expense of tariff dominance. His fastball velocity isn’t quite at the level it was when he won Cy Young, and his strikeout rate has declined in each of the last five seasons until dropping to a league average of 23.1% this year. On the other hand, that relatively insignificant number started to rise towards the end of the season, when he eliminated 27.7% of the opponents he faced in September. While he hasn’t quite matched the dominance of his otherworldly 2021 campaign in the years since, his 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP in 590 innings over the past three seasons ultimately still pegs him as a starter clearly capable of taking on a playoff-caliber rotation.

More to come…