Canelo, ‘Monster’ Inoue, Tank Davis and other not-so-accurate 2025 boxing predictions

From Frank Bay: The masses are clamoring for the mega boxing event of the year, Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence “Bud” Crawford, in 2025. Well, not so much. Boxing hasn’t had a major legitimate crossover event since the recent Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson circus incident and the 2023 Gervonta ‘Tank’ Davis vs. Ryan Garcia mega-event, which was rumored to have hit the tipping point of one million PPV buys. And let’s be honest, Davis vs. Garcia wasn’t a mega-event like the last true crossover event with the mass appeal of Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao.

Canelo is the latest star of PPV boxing as the model of success is changing thanks to streaming, as the Paul vs. Tyson on Netflix. But the last time Alvarez reached the million mark was against Gennadiy Golovkin in their second fight during the HBO days in 2018. Since then, Alvarez’s numbers have declined and he is only reaching around 500,000-650,000 reported PPVs. He’s only approaching 1 million, with Caleb Plant at 800,000 in 2021, which seems like about 20 years ago, considering the boxing landscape now with no Showtime or HBO left.

The fights are discussed well and the fight Bud and Turki Al-Shiekh are calling for is Canelo Alvarez. But honestly, it’s not a mega event that would reach the gold standard of 1 million, as every Bud PPV has failed without Errol Spence, with the Israil Madrimov fight making a paltry 150k PPV buy. Turki had a bloodbath at the event, allegedly losing millions even with a stacked undercard and an Eminem performance. The reality is that the fight is not a crossover fight and would probably make a max of 750k PPV. The only other reality is a fight with David Benavidez, which would probably do a max of 800,000 as it’s not a big crossover event, as Benny’s PPVs have failed big time, supposedly doing 75,000 for his fight with Demetrius Andrade on November 25, 2023. .

The truth is that Alvarez is in no man’s land, and his options as an opponent to Dmitry Bivol or Artur Beterbiev are less than his fight with Edgar Berlanga because, on the State’s side, Berlanga was a bigger name. I can’t offer a solid prediction as the future looks bleak for Alvarez and his chosen opponents for 2025. A bout with Jake Paul would be the right direction as he could contend for the Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao crossover fight that boxing desperately needs. Alvarez’s current 168-pound division has decent fighters but no attractive stars in Christian Mbilli, Diego Pacheco and unknowns in Osleys Iglesias and William Scull. No one would be willing to pay Alvarez more than $35 million to fight on PPV. If we want to get a Bud vs Canelo MEGA fight, Turki Al-Shiekh will have to shell out at least $100 million to attract the interest of the American market. If anyone can, it’s Turki.

Moving on to the A-list of boxing stars, we have “Monster” Naoya Inoue and Tank Davis. The sad truth is that I don’t see any name opponent except for each other who can truly become a cross-over star. Inoue, boxing’s No. 1 fighter, has reached his limit. Maybe Top Rank envisioned another meteoric rise like Pac-Man because Inoue has the Asian market like Manny, but he can’t move from one weight class to another, which was never fair to expect of him. But if Inoue wants to have a game-changing fight, it’s one Tank Davis, who exists in fantasy land. Inoue has good opponents ahead of him at 126 with Bruce Carrington and Rafael El Divino’ Espinoza. However, none of these fights will infuriate the American media like Manny did with his rivals named Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera. Look for Inoue to play it safe in 2025 and stage a Land of the Rising Sun fight with Junto Nakatani.

Last and certainly least is Tank Davis, who has done nothing to take the throne as the face of boxing after the huge success of his relationship with Ryan Garcia. Beating Frank Martin did nothing for him after losing momentum and taking a year off after being on fire, with that fight reportedly making less than 200k PPV. With Vasily Lomachenko choosing to sit down and fix his back, Davis was left without a viable name to sell his PPV event. He decided to select Lamont Roach and now, with multiple cancellations, people are wondering if the fight will even happen in 2025. Davis must know he needs a big name in 2025, but there aren’t many except the man who he has already beaten, Ryan Garcia. . The reality is that the other names are not stars like Ryan. Shakur Stevenson, Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney are all damaged goods. With the rumored return of Manny Pacquiao, the obvious mega crossover event would be a fight between Pac-Man and Tank Davis. A Manny vs. Davis fight would put Davis over Alvarez, but something tells me Davis and his handlers want to play it safe like they always have. By noting risky, nothing is lost.