Where will Alex Bregman end up?

December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list fall off the board. Left-handed Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the last day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) e Juan Soto (#1), both signed shortly before the start of the winter meetings. Massimo Fritto (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, e Corbin Burnes (#2) struck a deal with the Diamondbacks just before the end of 2024. That leaves just one top-six free agent on the board as we turn to 2025: Infielder Alex Bregmannwho MLBTR ranked as the No. 1 free agent. 3 of the offseason at the beginning of winter in November.

Over the course of his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, two-time All-Star and winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019). awards to third base. While Bregman has failed to recapture the 8-hit form he displayed at his peak in later years, he has remained a well-above-average regular in recent years: From 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260 /.349 /.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. Averaging more than four wins per year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently linked to Bregman this winter, while other notable suitors include the Blue Jays, Mets and Phillies. It is a market that seems quite robust, with several big clubs interested.

That said, however, Bregman’s influence in free agency may not be as strong as it was a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was of course the current Astros, but a reunion between the parties appears to be out of the question at this point as they have since signed Christian Walker and exchanged for Isaac Paredes to cover internal corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees appear to be distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reports over the past week have thrown cold water on the possibility of the club landing Bregman in free agency or the Cardinals at third base. Nolan Arenado through trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane a bit in recent weeks. One of those teams could be the Tigers, who were reportedly getting more serious about pursuing Bregman just last week … but they signed the second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year contract shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t completely preclude the Tigers from also signing Bregman, given their broad salary prospects and the club’s relatively unstable third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Otherwise the Tigers brass might have thought about adding Bregman.

Another potential wild card that may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly have interest in him earlier this winter. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club will likely be filled with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly after by Philadelphia making a trade to land the lefty Jesus Lucerdo from the Marlins. The Phillies would probably need to move to third base Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent topic of trade rumors this winter.

However, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clearly suited to his services. The Red Sox have been among the most frequently talked about teams this winter, after fading into the background in recent years. While rumored searches for high-value free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes have not borne fruit to this point, they have found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett crochet AND Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority this winter involves adding a right-handed bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while offering some balance against the club’s many left-handed hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly, so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been linked to him frequently this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. It seems likely that New York will prioritize a meeting with first base Pietro Alonso as well as adding Bregman, who would slide into third base and kick the youngster Marco Vientos in first place, likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. However, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in case they are unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andrés Gimenez within the club it would mean that Bregman’s signing is likely to push Ernie Clemente on the bench (at least barring an exchange of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the type of middle-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their training.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price could give some teams pause about pursuing him more aggressively. The infielder was apparently on the hunt for a $200 million deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s prediction before the offseason began was that he would get a seven-year, $182 million deal. It’s a price that has apparently made both the Astros and Yankees picky in their pursuit of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed reluctant to reach that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs hope to land Bregman on a deal closer to six years and $156 million, Houston has reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with similar opt-outs to that Carlos Correa signed when he left Houston a few winters ago, they will likely have to wait out his trade until the start of Spring Training. And you also can’t rule out the possibility that a “mystery team” swoops in to capture Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week).

How will Bregman’s free will develop? Will she land with one of her currently known suitors or a different club? And can he get the $200 million deal he appears to be seeking, or will he end up regretting turning down Houston’s $156 million offer?