Free Agent Profile: Charlie Morton

The 2024-25 offseason has seen starting pitchers enjoy a hot market virtually since the start of the winter, with virtually every starter signed to a deal that exceeded expectations this winter. This has led to a rush on starters all winter, and as the 2025 calendar year begins, only four starting pitchers remain on the market who MLBTR expected to land on multi-year deals this winter: Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, José QuintanaAND Andrew Heaney. With a number of clubs still hoping to add starting pitching help this winter, that means several teams will have to turn to one-year deals to augment their rotation.

The list of players who seem available in that corner of the market is extensive, with solid but not spectacular veterans as Kyle Gibson and Martin Pérez as well as players hoping to bounce back from declining or injured seasons such as Michele Lorenzen AND Spencer Turnbull. A particularly unique group of pitchers available on one-year deals consists of a handful of aging veterans who have long been among the best starters in baseball but either can’t muster or aren’t interested in making multi-year commitments at this point in their careers. careers. Former Cy Young Award winners Clayton Kershaw, Max SchezerAND Justin Verlander they all fall into this category, but the best of the group in 2024 was the 41-year-old right-hander Charlie Mortone.

Unlike the aforementioned trio, Morton is not a future Hall of Famer. He didn’t make his big league debut until he was 24 and didn’t become a full starter until his age-33 season, which came with the Astros in 2017. Since then, however, Morton has been among the best pitchers in this sport. He has become one of the sport’s most durable starters with more than 1,200 innings of work over the past eight seasons, good for eighth in the majors. Among starters with at least 1,000 innings of work during that span, Morton’s 3.64 ERA and nearly equal 3.63 FIP rank ninth, while his fantastic 27.4% strikeout rate ranks sixth place behind only Scherzer, Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Yu DarvishAND Blake Snell.

That consistent, reliable production would have made Morton an attractive free agent for numerous clubs in recent years, but his latest foray into free agency came in the 2020-21 offseason, when he limited his market to just Atlanta and Tampa Bay in an effort to remain close to his family. Since then, he has signed successive short-term extensions with the Braves to remain in Atlanta. In four years as a member of the Braves, Morton pitched to a 3.87 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 3.92 FIP in 686 1/3 innings of work, positioning himself as a durable middle-rotation arm.

There was some variation in Morton’s work with Atlanta, as he posted top-of-the-rotation caliber results in 2021 and ’23, but was closer to league average in 2022 and ’24. Even in those down years, though, Morton’s durability made him a quality rotation option not unlike Gibson. With the floor of a rugged veteran rotation and the ceiling of a playoff-caliber starter, Morton stands out among the remaining available starters as something akin to the best of both worlds; he’s been as durable over the years as a veteran like Gibson or Patrick Corbin, but with recent success he’s easily eliminated those more reliable weapons.

While even Morton’s best years pale in comparison to what they looked like at their peak, Morton’s numbers after the final two years are actually very similar to Scherzer’s in terms of rates: Scherzer posted a 3.81 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.29 FIP since the start of the 2023 season, while Morton has posted a 3.92 ERA (108 ERA+) with a 4.17 FIP in the same time frame. Scherzer’s 26.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are better than Morton’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate, but Morton benefits from a much higher groundball rate and obviously has almost double the volume of Scherzer over the last two years.

While betting on a pitcher who has already celebrated his 41st birthday always carries risks, Morton’s impressive durability and consistent track record of success make him one of the most intriguing mixes of upside and stability still available in free agency in this point. That said, it doesn’t appear the veteran has fully decided whether or not he’ll return to the mound for 2025. Morton has often thought about hanging up his gloves to join his family at their Florida home, and while initial reports indicated the his intention to pitch in 2025, Morton’s plans appear to remain up in the air as he would likely end up somewhere other than Atlanta for next season.

Morton’s preference is reportedly to pitch for a team that hosts Spring Training in Florida so he can stay close to home for much of the season. Aside from the Braves and Rays, the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, Marlins, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals, and Nationals all play in the Grapefruit League during the spring. Most of these teams are facing significant payroll constraints or are unlikely to add rotation help this winter, but the Orioles, Astros, Tigers and Mets could all be potential speculative destinations for the right-hander if he were to end up to leave Atlanta.