The Nationals will be there with Josh Bell

Since Josh Bell last suited up for the Nationals on August 1, 2022, he has played for four different teams. The Nationals traded him to the Padres along with Juan Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. He then became a free agent and signed a two-year, $33 million contract with the Guardians, only for Cleveland to trade him to the Marlins the following summer. He swam with the Fish for just under a year before it was Miami’s turn to throw him away at the 2024 deadline. Finally, after finishing last season with the Diamondbacks, Bell is returning to Washington for a one-year, $6 million deal. contract. That brings a two-and-a-half-year expedition full circle that took him from the East Coast to the West Coast, to the Midwest, to wetlands, to the desert and back to the nation’s capital. According to Google Maps, it would take just over 166 days to make that journey. Bell, not exactly known for his speed, did so in ‘881.

With Gold Glover Nathaniel Lowe likely to see the majority of playing time at first base, Bell should slot in as Washington’s everyday designated hitter. Bell has played primarily at starter his entire career, but his defense has always been lacking, even by the standards of the position. He never finished a season with a positive DRS and only once finished with a positive OAA or FRV. In 2024, Bell ranked last among all first basemen in DRS and next to last in OAA and FRV, despite playing only 98 games at that position. As long as Lowe stays healthy, which he has largely managed to do throughout his career, the Nationals won’t have to worry about Bell’s glove initially. In the meantime, Bell won’t have to worry about the harsh positional adjustment for designated hitters dragging down his overall numbers. A full-time DH playing all 162 games would finish with -17.5 Def; Bell finished with -17.8 Def in 2024. As long as he stays at DH, things can’t get any worse.

Of course, that also means Bell’s defensive value won’t improve. If he wants to improve in a replacement-caliber (-0.1 WAR) 2024 season, he’ll have to do so with his offense. More specifically, he will have to do it with his bat. Over the past four years, Bell has been the least productive baserunner in the sport, with -17.6 BsR. His best baserunning season in that span was 2021, when he finished with -3.9 BsR, eighth-worst in the majors. To put that into context, -3.9 BsR is so low that Steamer doesn’t project whoever to finish with -3.9 BsR in 2025. Heck, Steamer doesn’t have anyone else finishing under -2.9, while Bell is projected for -2.3. Bell’s baseline is such an aberration that Steamer refuses to accept it as his (or anyone else’s) 50th percentile result.

Despite his shortcomings in the field and on the bases, Bell can still be a valuable player as long as he hits — just look at his Silver Slugger-winning season in 2022. However, he has been little more than a league-average bat for the last two years. In 1,220 plate appearances from 2023-24, Bell slashed .248/.322/.412 with a 102 wRC+ (his bat improved with the D-backs after the deadline, for a total of 123 wRC+ in 162 PAs) . All three of his triple-bar numbers are within 2% of the league average over that time. His 9.3% walk rate and 20.8% strikeout rate are still good, but when it comes to balls in play, he hit nearly half of them on the ground (49% ground ball rate ). That’s too many grounders for such a slow runner. Bell also didn’t make up for those groundstrokes by hitting the ball hard enough when throwing it in the air. His adjusted exit velocity on balls in the air was just 0.6 mph faster than average over the past two years.

To make matters worse, the quality of Bell’s contact metrics dropped dramatically in 2024. In 2023, his .403 xwOBAcon (compared to a .370 wOBAcon) suggested he may have been the victim of some bad luck on the balls in game. Conversely, his .348 xwOBAcon in 2024 was worse than his .357 wOBAcon. Furthermore, it was significantly below league average and easily the lowest xwOBAcon of Bell’s career. Simply put, that’s not a good sign for a hitter in his 30s who hasn’t had truly elite exit velocity in several years.

For the Nationals, however, even another replacement-level season from Bell would be a huge improvement over the 70 WRC+ and -2.2 WAR their designated hitters achieved in 2024. Of their 11 players who took more than 10 PA at DH, only one, Jesse Winker, had a WRC+ above league average. And even then, his 103 wRC+ was still 5% worse than the league average for a DH:

However, the Nationals are certainly hoping that Bell looks more like the last time he was in their lineup than the player he has been since then. In 247 games with Washington from 2021-22, Bell hit 41 home runs, issued 114 walks to just 162 strikeouts and produced a 130 wRC+. His 5.0 WAR was second on the team only to Soto’s 9.3. Whether you look at RBI or wRAA, Bell was one of the top 30 run producers in baseball.

And it’s not like the success came out of nowhere either. Bell was also an above-average hitter during his days with the Pirates. In five seasons between 2016 and 2020, he hit 86 home runs in 552 games, slashing .261/.349/.466 with a 113 wRC+. He was never the most consistent producer, but at his best he punished opposing pitchers with a dangerous combination of power and plate discipline. In his 2019 All-Star season, he hit 37 home runs and walked at a rate of 12.1%. His 135 wRC+ placed him among the top 10 qualified hitters in the NL.

The 2025 season will be Bell’s age 32 season. He won’t turn 33 until August. It’s been a while since we’ve seen the best version of his bat for an extended period, but it’s not unreasonable to think he still has the upside of being a middle-order hitter for a team like the Nationals. Otherwise, his floor is still that of a durable, league-average bat. The only season of his career in which he finished with a below-average WRC+ was the shortened 2020 season. He is also one of just 12 players to qualify for the batting title in each of the last eight years. Bell has only been on the IL twice in his career; he missed 11 days with an oblique strain in 2018 and six days due to COVID protocols in 2021. There’s no reason to think he can’t stay healthy and provide a middle-league offense through the 2025 season. And if he can , will represent a two-hit improvement over the designated hitters the Nationals ran out of in 2024.

Beyond that, the Nationals didn’t sign Bell just for his on-field skills. At the Winter Meetings, manager Dave Martinez said he wanted to bring “a veteran presence” to the roster to help with “chemistry and culture” in the clubhouse. Sure, it’s a platitude we’ve all heard countless times, but it makes sense for this team. Bell is the only player in Washington’s projected starting lineup who will be in his 30s by Opening Day. He is one of only five players on the 40-man roster with postseason experience. More specifically, he has a shining reputation throughout the league as a great clubhouse guy, and that’s all the more significant considering how many clubhouses he’s been a part of. The last time Bell was in Washington, Martinez and POBO Mike Rizzo made it clear how much they appreciated his intangibles. Martinez described him as “an incredible human being.” Rizzo called him “one of the greatest makeup artists we’ve ever brought in here.”

From an outside perspective, I can’t speak to how much extra value (if any) Bell could bring with his work ethic, leadership or affability. What I can say with confidence is that the Nationals clearly value these qualities, and that certainly played a role in the decision to offer him a contract. A $6 million salary might seem like a slight premium for a player who has been near replacement level for the past two years. Maybe it is. But it’s worth keeping in mind that Bell’s salary reflects much more than what the Nationals think he can provide on the field.

The Nationals have improved this winter. Lowe was their only addition that moved the needle significantly, but Michael Soroka raises the bar and Bell raises the bar. That said, none of these transactions suggest a team diving into the deep end. Earlier in the offseason, various pundits suggested the Nationals were a good fit for star slugger Pete Alonso, but the additions of Lowe and Bell take them out of that conversation. Likewise, signing Soroka and re-signing Trevor Williams almost certainly means they won’t pursue a more significant upgrade to their rotation. The Nats could still pull off a big surprise and sign Alex Bregman — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested he was a “prime target” of theirs in November — but the fact they made an offer to Gleyber Torres suggests they’re more interested in stop-gap solutions what great splashes.

Therefore, it’s unlikely the Nationals will be able to compete in 2025. Maybe enough of their young players will emerge and lead this team in a surprise Wild Card push, but I’d bet first that Washington will be out of contention by July. In other words, I would bet right now that Bell will pack his bags before the trade deadline for the fourth straight year.