Reds Greenlight Gavin Lux trades to Dodger Blue

The Dodgers traded Gavin Lux to the Reds on Monday for prospect Mike Sirota and Cincinnati’s 2025 competitive draft Round A selection, who is the 37th overall pick in the upcoming draft. Lux, who turned 27 in November, is a career .252/.326/.383 hitter with just under 1,500 career plate appearances. He is entering his first year of officiating; the Reds will have him under contract for three seasons.

The Lux era in Los Angeles was difficult even as the team found success in the league around him. He became one of the best prospects in baseball during an incredible 2019 season in which he slashed .347/.421/.607 with 59 extra-base hits in 113 minor league games. He spent the second half of that season, while still 21, at Triple-A Oklahoma City, briefly made his big league debut, and was my No. 2 in baseball entering 2020. Expectations for him were sky high, not only in terms of impact but also the immediacy of that impact.

Instead, problems with Lux’s launch accuracy arose during the pandemic season and have been an intermittent problem ever since. His bout with the yips led to 2021 experimentation at third base and left field, neither of which stuck. The Dodgers seemed determined to bring Lux back as a shortstop in 2023, but bad luck found Lux ​​again when he tore his ACL in a Cactus League game and missed the entire year. Returning to the Keystone in 2024, Lux put together an average offensive season – he slashed .251/.320/.383 in 487 plate appearances with a career-high 10 home runs and a 100 wRC+ – with a sub-par second base defense average, culminating in 1.5 WAR.

Lux fits well on a Reds roster full of versatile infielders, most of whom hit right-handed. While anemic against lefties, especially their sliders, Lux is a career .264/.337/.408 hitter against righties and has slashed .262/.332/.407 against them in 2024. Reds seem to have the best ability to play matchups in a variety of different positions if they wish, but from another perspective, they lack stability in every position except the shortstop. Center fielder TJ Friedl has been on the IL five times in the last two years, second baseman Matt McLain got Arizona Fall League reps in center field when he returned from a serious shoulder injury. Spencer Steer (1B/LF), Jeimer Candelario (1B/3B), Santiago Espinal (2B/3B/SS), and Rule 5 pick Cooper Bowman (2B/OF) all play a number of different positions, many of which overlap with those in which Lux plays or has played. They are all also right-handed. The Reds don’t have an obvious first baseman (Christian Encarnacion-Strand is the projected starter there, but he was terrible last season) and it’s possible that one of Steer or Candelario will fill that spot every day, necessitating a platoon on the other. position. It’s conceivable that Lux will revisit left field or third base so he too can bring some versatility to the table and be part of said platoon, but no matter which players claim spots on the Opening Day roster in Cincinnati, they appear ready to make him move everywhere to guarantee favorable combinations for the attack.

The main reward in this deal for Los Angeles is the draft pick, the 37th overall pick in what I believe is a deep draft. So far Lux has performed like a level 45 player, and prospects of that talent level tend to be available in the Comp round of a deep class. This becomes the Dodgers’ first selection in the 2025 draft, as their common first-round pick was lowered 10 spots to 40th overall because their big league payroll exceeded the second luxury tax threshold. They now have three of this year’s top 70 picks.

The move from an infield with Lux to one with recent Korean signee, Hye-seong Kim ( analysis here ), represents a notable upgrade for the Dodgers on defense. Kim has only played second base in recent KBO seasons, but he is a great athlete with great range, and it is reasonable to predict that he will be able to play MLB-quality shortstop, as well as many other positions, if given to him. dates. the opportunity. The Dodgers’ middle infield contingent in 2024 was a yip-prone Lux, several guys in their 30s and an injury-rusty Tommy Edman, who they acquired at the trade deadline. Their mix for 2025 will depend on what type of defender shortstop Kim ends up being — right now, they’re still planning on having Mookie Betts open the year soon — and is pending whatever else the Dodgers do between now and opening day.

The trade’s sidecar is Sirota, a 21-year-old outfielder who was Cincinnati’s 2024 third-round selection out of Northeastern, where he hit .324/.458/.577 during his career. (Readers unfamiliar should be aware that the college statistics are inflated.) He has yet to play a real pro game, but participated in Cincinnati’s teaching championship game during the fall. Here’s my pre-draft report:

Fast and powerful central prospect with extra discipline. Athlete with a narrow build, robust and strong. The hands are especially lively with low ball power. He will likely swing under a ton of zone fastballs and be a below-average contact hitter. Speed ​​adjusts to center; the readings and routes need refinement, but the foot speed is there. The expected issues with Sirota’s hit tool and flavor of size/athleticism seem more like a part-timer. His on-base ability bolsters his profile and gives Sirota the ability to be a complementary Tyrone Taylor type of outfielder.

The Dodgers often target players with speed-driven profiles and try to make them stronger (Jake Vogel, Kendall George, Zyhir Hope), and Sirota is of that ilk. This is also the second straight year the Dodgers have taken a chance on a recently drafted prospect who had yet to gain a foothold in the pro world (also Hope, of the Cubs).

So the Dodgers essentially turn a part-time player into a comparably valuable (if slow to mature) asset and an arguably lesser, but decent young prospect in Sirota. In a vacuum it’s a pretty even trade, but knowing that they probably replaced Lux ​​with a better roster fit in a separate deal, and then cashed him out for more pieces seems like vintage Andrew Friedman from the Rays era snowballed in assets. For the Reds, Lux’s inclusion on the roster and their desire to compete for the NL Central crown helps justify things on their part, even if it’s harder to stomach a smaller market team bringing out such a pick high in the draft.