The Giants will sign Justin Verlander

The Giants agree Justin Verlander on a one-year contract, awaiting a medical examination. Verlander, an ISE Baseball client, would be guaranteed $15 million.

The future Hall of Famer will play his age 42 season in San Francisco. Verlander has previously suggested he hopes to pitch until he’s 45. There was never any doubt he would be back on a one-year deal somewhere. It always seemed unlikely that he would continue in Houston. Verlander had an illustrious run with the Astros during his first half tenure with the Mets in 2023. He’s coming off a challenging season, though, which led Houston to let him walk.

Verlander caught the ball 17 times and had a 5.48 earned run average in 90 1/3 innings. He had a couple of injured spells: first in April due to shoulder inflammation, then a two-month period between June and August related to a neck problem. Opponents have tagged him for an ERA north of 8.00 in his seven starts since his return from his latest injury. Verlander admitted after the season that he returned too soon as he tried to contribute to Houston’s push to the playoffs.

San Francisco believes there is more in the tank with a healthy offseason. Verlander is just a year removed from an excellent season. He combined for a 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 innings with New York and Houston in 2023. That came with a 21.5% strikeout rate that was well below Verlander’s previous level. This indicated a regression from his Cy Young form, but he still found a lot of success that year with a decrease in swing-and-miss stuff.

Verlander averaged 93.5 mph on his four-seam fastball last season. That’s down slightly from the 94-95 MPH range he sat in between 2022-23, but hasn’t completely fallen off the table. Throwing at less than maximum strength could explain this decline. If Verlander is fully healthy in 2025, it’s not strange to expect his velocity to rebound.

Health is an obvious caveat for a 42-year-old pitcher. Verlander has defied expectations once before, returning from Tommy John surgery to win his third Cy Young at age 39 in 2022. While he’s unlikely to repeat that type of performance, he could be an asset as an arm mid-rotation and veteran presence on a losing staff Blake Snell.

Logan Webb he will return to fill the role of the team’s No. 1 starter. Verlander e Robbie Ray slots in the middle of the rotation as high upside veterans who are trying to recover from injuries. Former top prospect Kyle Harrison he should be the fourth starter. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said last month that the Giants intend to give a hard-throwing sinkerballer Jordan Hicks another chance at a pivot point. Younger arms Landen Roupp, Black Freemason AND Hayden Birdsong could push Hicks for the fifth starting role.

This is the second free agent move of Posey’s first winter atop baseball operations. His big success was a seven-year contract to install Willy Adames at shortstop. Posey publicly suggested that continuing to strengthen the offense was a bigger priority than the rotation, but they evidently appreciated the value of a one-year roll of the dice on Verlander.

San Francisco had about $208 million in luxury tax obligations coming in today, as calculated by RosterResource. That will push them to around $223 million, just under $20 million shy of the $241 million base mark. Verlander’s deal matches the veterans’ $15 million salary Alex Cobb AND Charlie Mortone it also landed earlier this winter.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the Giants and Verlander had agreed to a one-year deal. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reported the $15 million salary. Image courtesy of Imag.