Today’s mailbag enters the Gavin Lux trade, Yankees infield, Giants ability to add a bat, How the Orioles could trade for a better starter, What a Blake Street Bombers Part 2 lineup could look like for the Rockies, Why some free agents aren’t signing up Toronto, Why the Astros aren’t getting any more trading criticism Kyle Tuckerand more.
Kyle asks:
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What are your thoughts on the Lux trade to Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan I’m a little annoyed that they wouldn’t beat the Reds’ offer (the M’s have the #33 pick in comp A, the Reds traded #37 and a prospect for Lux). Are M’s too risk averse?
Leonardo asks:
I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility in playing multiple roles. Isn’t that part of the reason the Dodgers traded him? (In addition to the surplus of central interiors). Lux is an average 2B. He couldn’t make SS shots. He hasn’t shown he can play well enough even at 3B or OF. Comments?
Jeff asks:
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After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think? Noelvi Mars gets this year?
Dante asks:
Do you think the Lux trade to the Reds was in anticipation of another move, something like a deep-field trade for Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but they seem to have accumulated a lot of interior players and the team seems to need some space in the middle of the lineup.
Elliott asks:
After the acquisition of Gavin Lux, who is the best fit for the Reds’ next move? Probably a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?
Colin asks:
I’ve always liked Gavin Lux, even though he hasn’t yet become the star he should have been. That said, I wonder if trade leads the way Mookie Betts return to his more natural position of second base with Rojas and Kim splitting shortstop duties? I’d also like to note that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they’re lucky enough to sign him. Your thoughts?
Jason asks:
What do you think of the Gavin Lux trade? The Dodgers either had enough of him or liked him Alex Freeland enough to platoon with Kim?
Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman. He saved his season with a winning streak that I would say lasted from July 11th to September 4th. In that time, Lux posted a whopping 181 WRC+ in 161 appearances. He then recorded an 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances the remainder of the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PAs with a .177/.286/.294 line.
Before his eight-week streak, Lux was one of the ten worst-hit regular players in baseball over a span of 264 plate appearances. On the season, Lux was heavily protected against left-handed pitching, facing lefties just 10.3% of the time. And that’s for good reason: He posted an absurd 17 WRC+ against lefties in those 50 PAs.
In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall referenced this Oct. 4 article from FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe to explain Lux’s second-half efforts to swing harder and do more damage . Lux’s changes were real; it clearly started swinging harder. You can read more about these changes in this Aug. 8 article by Fabian Ardaya in The Athletic.
Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties and over 1,210 plate appearances in his career. Eight straight weeks aren’t enough to convince me he’s changed, especially since he struggled again for the final 105 PAs of his season.
That said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first-round pick. There is a silver lining here where swinging harder leads to a 120 wRC+, holds his own against lefties like he did in 2022, and becomes a 4-5 WAR player and borderline star. Perhaps he can also become adequate in positions compared to other second basemen. I don’t think the Reds will be able to get this out of him when the Dodgers couldn’t, but maybe being back in the Midwest and out of the spotlight will help.
Defensively, Krall said Lux will play second base, some outfield and DH, and the team will “give him a look” at third base and shortstop. Lux famously had trouble throwing to shortstop; it’s hard to see how third base would be better. He displayed arm strength at the seventh percentile this year, likely excluding right field. Lux dabbled in left field until 2022, so I could see him spending time there. The idea that Lux is versatile is as overrated as it once was Jurickson Profar I couldn’t find a location So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.
As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below average in Statcast OAA this year. So I think what the Reds have in Lux is an affordable two years as a platoon second baseman who needs to be on the bench 27% of the time but is capable of a 108 WRC+ against right-handers. He’s a useful player.
But what if I told you there’s a free agent, also controllable for two years, who would sign for $3.5 million and could do more or less the same things as Lux, but has also proven he can play well at third base?
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